OK, here's how it all shakes out ...
I checked the hives, the far one in the picture with the red landing board is the one I perceived to be the stronger of the two hives (more "advanced" if you would), I believed that was the one that was potentially overcrowded and henced swarmed - I was WRONG ! (well, I guess I had a 50/50 chance!)...
The yellow hive (landing board) is the one sans queen. The top brood box is still barely drawn out (may 3 full frames) - the majority of the frames less than 1/2 drawn out. There are significantly fewer bees in there now and no queen. I have top feeders on both hives and the bee in both colonies are going through a quart every 2-3 days.
There are some queen cells in the lower box, one has an open bottom, but looks as though there is still a larva in there (there was a nurse bee feeding it)... I could tell she was a nurse by her hat. (OK, now I'm just being plain silly

).
That's the hive that still has that darned nuc box on the bottom. I have a funny feeling that when I put the queen excluder on that one (last Thurs.) I may have set the swarm in action. I don't know why though. The other box did fine with the progression (they're thriving!).
Any thoughts on this? I put the queen excluder on to keep her from continuing to lay in the nuc (so I could ween it off the hive). I KNOW she was in first brood box so it's not like I trapped her in the nuc. The queen cells are in the first brood box too so it's not like the bees in there didn't know the queen was with them. There is alot of capped brood, alot of larva, no eggs that I could see.
Bottom line, I ordered another complete hive setup from the Eryes. David was great, he spent about 1/2 hour on the phone with me (on their dime) discussing all the possibilities. We talked about a variety of things, he was very helpful. He doesn't see a problem getting another hive established before winter (definately no honey off that one though).
Anyway, boxes will ship tomorrow morning, hopefully I can have them set up and ready to go by this time next week.
sherry