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Author Topic: statistics!!  (Read 2566 times)
Jerrymac
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« on: March 23, 2006, 08:43:20 AM »

From something said in another forum;

http://beemaster.com/beebbs/viewtopic.php?t=4616

I have to wonder where this kind of info comes from and how sure are "they"? this is what was posted;

"in the Bee Culture article last year they said that one's chances of dying from a bee sting (due to allergic reaction) was about 1 in 555,555,556."

First off is this a world wide number or just here in the USA, or some other country? Because if it is only the USA, there are not that many people in this country in the first place, and I'd be willing to bet that not even half of the people in this country have ever been stung.

Another one is the stats on DNA. You hear that the chances of any one haveing this particular match of DNA combination is somewhere in the trillions. There ain't that many people in the world, but someone had it, so why not some other person?

OK one more.... The number of people whos lives would have been saved if they had only used their seatbelts..... How do you know those people would have lived? Remember people do die even with seatbelts and air bags. So you don't know! And if everybody everywhere wore their seatbelts tomorrow, there would be people dying in car crashes. Would we then declair seatbelts unsafe?

Once upon a time it was said that there were no two snowflakes alike. I always thought that was a stupid idea. Do you know how many snow flakes fall in one year? Or even one day during a big snowstorm?

Yes I did hear somewhere a long time back that this has been disproven. Two identical snowflakes were found. But I guess it wasn't earth shattering news because people still believe the old myth.

Ok I'll shut up.

And wow was this the 22,222 post? Should I win a prize?
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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rsilver000
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2006, 09:15:11 AM »

Interesting topic!
When I took statistics in college they always stressed to us that statistics apply to populations and not individuals.  So the generalized risk of a complication such as an allergic reaction to bee venom leading to death is XXX amount, the reality is that that number doesn't mean a whole lot if you are that individual that has a hypersensitivity reaction.  By the way the risk of an allergic reaction to bee venom that leads to anaphylaxis, is much higher than 1:555,555,556.

When they talk about DNA matches, and that the chance of an identical individual having the same DNA is XX amount, what they really mean is that the chances are low enough that your dna is pretty unique to you as an individual.  It is crazy to think that in the entire world there is only one person with your exact match.  It is just statistically remote.

One thing I have discoved as a physician is that if an event/complication is remote or unlikely to happen, it probably will occur and probably when I am on call!!!

Cheers,
Rob
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Jay
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2006, 09:25:24 AM »

Quote from: Jerrymac

And wow was this the 22,222 post? Should I win a prize?


Sorry Jerry, the prize went to 22,223! Wouldn't ya know it! evil  cheesy
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rsilver000
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2006, 12:16:25 PM »

I decided to look up the incidence of deaths secondary to stings.  Here is the info:
Localized reactions from hymenoptera stings occur in 17-56% of stings.  This is not anaphylaxis although the stress and excitement can make some people believe this is what is happening.  

1-2% of people will experience a generalized reaction and 5% of people will seek medical care for this problem.  

There are between 30-120 deaths per year in the US.  50% occur within the first 30 min of the sting and 75% within 4 hours.  If there is any question---SEEK MEDICAL CARE, or have an epipen available for immediate use.  

The peak incidence of death from anaphylaxis is in individuals between the ages of 34 and 48.  

Scary stuff   embarassed ; deaths are not common but large enough incidence that we should all be aware of the problem.
Rob
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2006, 01:11:34 PM »

So I'm right smiley Stats aren't worth the paper they're writen on smiley
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Apis629
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2006, 01:51:09 PM »

When I "regurgitate" that statistic, which everyone seems to be misinterpriting, it was in relevence to the possibility of dying solely from an extreme allergic reaction.  Granted, I didn't make the statistic, I just quoted...I'll search for that article so I can scan it and prove my point.
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Robo
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2006, 08:21:34 PM »

Quote from: Jerrymac
So I'm right smiley Stats aren't worth the paper they're writen on smiley

Depends on which side of the statistic your on shocked

Statistics rank right up there with quantum physics too me.

We quote our servers as having 30 years mean time between failures.  It's always fun explaining to a customer, whose system fails, that this is based on  the full field population.  It's not the kind of lottery they are happy about winning cry
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Apis629
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2006, 02:15:54 PM »

I know realize that I made an error in coppying the statistic (yet another reason I should re-read the article before I attempt to quote).  THet realll chances of dying from an allergic reaction to bee stings is 1 in 5,555,556 (September issue of Bee Culture p. 35)

Sorry for my gross error.
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2006, 06:58:12 PM »

OHHHhhhh..... I guess we can forgive you this time. Perhaps I can live with that number. Still means nothing to those on the small number side.
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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Jack Parr
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2006, 08:28:24 AM »

Quote from: rsilver000
I decided to look up the incidence of deaths secondary to stings.  Here is the info:
Localized reactions from hymenoptera stings occur in 17-56% of stings.  This is not anaphylaxis although the stress and excitement can make some people believe this is what is happening.  

1-2% of people will experience a generalized reaction and 5% of people will seek medical care for this problem.  

There are between 30-120 deaths per year in the US.  50% occur within the first 30 min of the sting and 75% within 4 hours.  If there is any question---SEEK MEDICAL CARE, or have an epipen available for immediate use.  

The peak incidence of death from anaphylaxis is in individuals between the ages of 34 and 48.  

Scary stuff   embarassed ; deaths are not common but large enough incidence that we should all be aware of the problem.
Rob


Well now THAT is reassuring, being I'm past, waaay past, the 34-48 age bracket I automatically defied the dark hand. Weeelll at the time of MY reaction I thought that surely I would NOT perish from just a bug sting and since YOU are reading my disclosure, see,  I made it Huh

There was/is an article just recently in one of the two bee mags, ( I don't recall which ) about a guy being stung on the top of his left ear and subsequently HE suffered a sever reaction and went to the Butcher/Hosp. shop for a revival.  Tongue

My exact situation!  What is most interesting is that the writer and the guy suffering the reaction, was told that there is/are nerves that tie in from the top of the ear to the throat area, by A PARAMEDIC of all people, not THE DOCTOR but a Paramedic smiley   Well, now that was reassuring. Although the attending Physician in MY emergency didn't tell me all this at the time I don't, for one minute, doubt that SHE didn't know this.  NOOOO I tend to think that she probably thought that such information was above and beyond my comprehension and she didn't care to burden me with such trivia smiley

But now I know.  Put protective tape on the top of the ears IF you chose to go necked while fooling around with bees.

I think that the bill was around 800 bucks for two hours in the emergency room. Thank you Medicare. wink

Opps the lead in was about statistics, whatever they are. Oh well, sorry.
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2006, 08:57:56 AM »

And the stats for staying on topic are smiley
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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Jack Parr
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2006, 09:08:56 AM »

Well we aren't dealing with JUST DRONES here.  One thougth leads to another and so forth... Hmmmm.

It like the comparison of what guys like to talk about while on the job and what they like to talk about while off the job.

Do you know the answer smiley  See off topic again.
 smiley
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2006, 09:13:32 AM »

I think it would all depend on several things....

1) What group of guys
2) What job they are at
3) The environment
4) Their income bracket
5) what the wife will let them get away with.....
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

 Jerry

My pictures.Type in password;  youview
     http://photobucket.com/albums/v225/Jerry-mac/
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