Need Bees Removed?
International
Beekeeping Forums
December 22, 2014, 10:57:46 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?

Login with username, password and session length
News: 24/7 Ventrilo Voice chat -click for instructions and free software here
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar bee removal Login Register Chat  

Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: TSLA  (Read 1176 times)
hjon71
Field Bee
***
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 909


Location: SW Tenn


« on: March 09, 2014, 12:52:09 AM »

Any body into Tesla?
I know their cars are dead sexy shocked and I would love to have one. But the base $40k is too much for me to consider.
Logged

Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy
T Beek
Super Bee
*****
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 2775


Location: USA, N/W Wisconsin


« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2014, 11:05:01 AM »

Are they running on hay yet?  laugh  Darn, I'm trying to see beyond such things as the TSLAÖ.kinda like Mr. Tesla  Wink
Logged

"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."
hjon71
Field Bee
***
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 909


Location: SW Tenn


« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2014, 11:30:32 PM »

Btw, I intended for this to be about stock purchase, not the car. If that matters to anyone huh
Down 2 days in a row......I REALLY want to buy some now grin
Logged

Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2014, 02:32:22 AM »

Despite what Iím about to say, I sure wish I bought TSLA at the IPO! 

By traditional evaluations no logical ďinvestorĒ would touch TSLA at anything over about $20 a share; itís about $240 now.  So itís inflated 10x by hot air and hype.  As Cramer says itís a cult stock that follows its own rules like most cults.  This is a company that sells less cars in a YEAR than Ford Motor sells in 5 days, and yet is has a valuation (Market Cap $30B) that is half that of Ford Motor ($60B).  This is like a tech bubble stock of the late 90s.  They kept on going higher and higher until a recession finally burst the bubble.  I donít see a recession in the near future so this bubble probably still has some legs.  Problem is, itís irrational and very unpredictable.

TSLA continues to loose money and dilute stock to build things like gigafactories.  Beeks generally frown upon the idea of printing money (which diluting stock is).  TSLA has never made money by GAAP standards.  The amount of shares short relative to the float is pretty high which means a lot of people think itís going to fall and theyíll make money if/when that happens.  However shorts on a momentum/cult stock like TSLA usually have the reverse effect in the short term.  They drive up valuations to crazy levels because so many people are forced to ďbuyĒ shares to cover their shorts if the price ticks up.

Personally I think their business model looks too much like GMs EV1 of the 1990s.  A cool little car for the Hollywood elite types to buy that will run OK in warm climates.  We all know what eventually happened to the EV1.  The major difference I see here is TSLA has the price tag so high (MSRP 70K to 95K) that the margins SHOULD eventually make money if there are enough people in Hollywood to keep shelling out 80K for a 4600lbs car.  GM only leased the EV1s.

Personally I think the ďBetter PlaceĒ electric car company had a better paradigm but even that went bankrupt and got liquidated in 2013.

IMO, itís risky to buy TSLA, but even riskier to short them.  Iíve gotten burned big time shorting this type of irrational exuberance in the late 1990s.  You never know when the crazies will bail from their crazy train.
Logged
T Beek
Super Bee
*****
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 2775


Location: USA, N/W Wisconsin


« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2014, 09:29:36 AM »

Awesome infoÖÖThanks BlueÖ.I love this kind of 'background' dataÖ.. 
Logged

"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2014, 04:23:07 PM »

I see your TSLA is down to $237 today. grin
Logged
hjon71
Field Bee
***
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 909


Location: SW Tenn


« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2014, 06:12:24 PM »

I know, I know. I haven't bought.....but I really want to cool
Logged

Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2014, 05:28:35 PM »

Your TSLA dropped to $230 on Friday.  If it was great at $256 two weeks ago, it must be a real bargain now  grin

So what would drive this crazy stock higher?  There are a lot of people short on the thing, so any semi believable positive hype could force those short to panic buy and that really shoots a stock up.  So what is left to hype?  Profits?  No, they donít have any.  Sales?  No, theyíre minuscule.  A new $5 billion dollar gigafactory?  No, see how A123 systems went bust.  Elon splitting the atom?  No, I doubt it.  So whatís left?   

I would submit to you that if they want to remain in the auto business, they need to buy out a real auto maker; sooner than later.  History has proven over and over again that small volume niche cars arenít viable businesses unless theyíre in the high end sports car industry.

One of the real advantages Tesla has right now is the huge pile of funny money (stock) Wall Street has afforded them due to their celebrity status.  That wonít last forever.  They would be foolish not to use that money to buy out some profitable businesses before their stock falls back to earth.  They canít live off hot air forever ya know.   

I think Fiat/Chrysler would be a good target to try to buy since their market cap is only 13 billion and something Tesla might be able to buy out with a stock swap.  Last year Fiat made over 2 billion in profit, while Tesla made nothing.  But in the crazy Wall Street world, Tesla is the bigger more valuable company by 2x!  If Tesla buys out a real auto company like Chrysler, Lord only knows how high this stock might go on the hype.  Thatís why I donít short the high flyers.

Meanwhile I hear VW has created a Lithium Air battery with 3 times the capacity of Lithium Ion batteries.  Does that make Teslaís new $5Billon Lithium Ion gigafactory obsolete even before itís built?  Anybody can, and has, built a car with an electric motor, itís the battery technology that has always been the problem.  Does Tesla really know more about batteries than VW and everybody else?
Logged
hjon71
Field Bee
***
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 909


Location: SW Tenn


« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2014, 07:43:38 PM »

I am clueless. I haven't done any sort of homework on the subject, I just like that Tesla produced and brought a new product to market. I can't afford one but I sure would like to. So, the next best thing in my mind is buy some stock. They have BIG plans...... what if the Tesla auto segment got bought, instead of buying?
Logged

Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2014, 09:09:16 PM »

Who would pay $30Billion+ for a company that loses money and only makes 22,500 cars per year?  Who has $30Billion to waste?  Only guy that comes to mind might be Zuckerburg. Smiley  If heíll throw away $19 Billion of other peopleís money (FB stock) on a phone texting company with 55 employees, well then anything is possible.   I think I would have bought Fiat/Chrysler if I had $19B to burn. evil 

The other autos arenít going to buy out Tesla because the other autos arenít worth that much.  GM and Ford are only worth $60 billion.  They sure arenít going to dilute half their value to buy a company whoís technology they already have.  GM invented the modern day EV about 20 years ago; itís called the EV1.  VW is worth about $120 billion, but why would they want Tesla when VW may have the battery breakthrough?  Tesla might make a nice high end Leaf, but Nissan canít afford to buy them out since Nissan is only worth $35B.  I really canít think of any good reason a auto company would want to buy out TSLA.  Telsaís claim to fame was putting computer batteries in series to run a motor.  Is that IP really valuable to anybody else?       

You say they have big plans, but there are plenty of people out there with ďbig plansĒ as well.  Why bet on Telsa?  What good CEO doesnít have big plans for success?  Donít you think Fisker had big plans?   How about A123 systems?  How about the Volt?  How about the EV1?  What about the Nissan leaf?  What about Delorean grin    Everybodyís got big plans, dreaming is the easy part!

Actually doesnít the Leaf already got what Tesla dreams of?  An affordable electric vehicle (MSRP 30K vs 70K), more volume (47K vs 22K), already has a gigafactory (Smyrna, TN vs wet dream), and is part of a real company to take advantage of economies of scale.  Nissan made over $4 billion last year, Tesla made $0.
Logged
hjon71
Field Bee
***
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 909


Location: SW Tenn


« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2014, 01:07:45 AM »

Way to sugarcoat it. Lol
I know, I asked. So I will save me money and wait for a winner. Btw if you hear of one I'd appreciate a heads up.
Logged

Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2014, 02:26:16 AM »

LOL.  I never said the CAR wasnít a winner.  Itís the STOCK Iím dubious of at these valuations.  In all honesty there are some fuel cell company valuations that are even crazier.  Many of these high PE type stocks are just a gambling game; pure speculation.  Some turn into Google, most turn into Netscape.  Itís probably still wise to know some of the fundamental before throwing money in. I dunno  The analysts on Wall Street canít always be counted on for altruism. Cry

I think the stats still say youíre better off betting on a general broad index than trying to pick winners and losers.  However the celebrity stocks have sure done well lately, no doubt about it.  I sure wish I bought TSLA last year.  It's gone up something like 700% since last year! 

You know me, Iím a data guy. Smiley  I just pass on the data and let the people decide.  applause   
Logged
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2014, 07:53:25 PM »

TSLA popped up to $240 on analyst hype early this week, then dropped back to $228 by weekís end.

Hereís a question for you.  What if Tesla is wrong about selling 35,000 of their $70K to $90K cars this year?  The auto market can be pretty fickle and the marketing guys are often wrong with their guesses (yes they are guesses).  Along with a fickle market, Tesla also has to contend with a lot of states trying to shut them down; that canít be good news for sales can it?  How many $90K toys can a company really sell per year?   How many $90K Porsche 911s sold last year?  How many $100K vipers?  How many $76K Z06s?  Hint, a whole lot less than 35,000 units.

Chrysler had hoped to sell 2000 of its new vipers a year.  Last year it sold 591.  They are now idling the plant to burn off inventory which has ballooned to a full year.  Might it not be a concern for Tesla if they have to idle their gigafactory for a year due to slow sales?  Idle plants are a huge capital drain.  Where do they get the $$$ to keep the lights on?  Seems like a ďriskĒ that a responsible ďanalystĒ would mentionÖ.just sayin.

Thereís two ways to make money on stocks; through speculation or inherent value.  Tesla stock is WAY beyond inherent value (as Iíve pointed out in all these posts) so the only way you make money at this point is playing a game of chicken with other speculators.  Some have made an absolute killing riding this bubble up, some swing trade on the hype, but at this point itís pure gambling and you sure donít want to be the last one standing on the bubble!  

The question an investor now has to ask themselves is this grin:  ďDo you feel lucky, punkĒ (courtesy of Mr. Eastwood).  
Logged
T Beek
Super Bee
*****
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 2775


Location: USA, N/W Wisconsin


« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2014, 09:11:23 AM »

Excellent discussionÖ..but there is third way some of us use to make money these days (and a few really good and fair ways too - that are stifled and ignored). 

Under our current corrupt and obsolete economic system the Elite no longer have to use their own money, so if they win they really win.  But if they loose - they still win, because of the rules allowing for corporate bailouts that exempt a deserved prosecution of the responsible parties (BIG Banks and their Bookmakers and Lawyers), rules written by BIG corporate entities, many 'claiming' American Status and its implied prestige when it serves their interests, yet will do everything in their power to contribute the absolute 'least' back to society.

THERE IS A BETTER WAY.
Logged

"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."
iddee
Galactic Bee
******
Online Online

Gender: Male
Posts: 6299

Location: Randleman, NC


« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2014, 09:44:25 AM »

""THERE IS A BETTER WAY.""

What is the better way?
Logged

"Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me . . . Anything can happen, child. Anything can be"

*Shel Silverstein*
iddee
Galactic Bee
******
Online Online

Gender: Male
Posts: 6299

Location: Randleman, NC


« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2014, 09:46:27 AM »

Compare the tesla to the Elio and where do you stand?

http://www.eliomotors.com/
Logged

"Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me . . . Anything can happen, child. Anything can be"

*Shel Silverstein*
T Beek
Super Bee
*****
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 2775


Location: USA, N/W Wisconsin


« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2014, 10:21:03 AM »

""THERE IS A BETTER WAY.""

What is the better way?

Awe C'mon iddee;  Revisit my posts (or simply take the time to read them for the first time) over the last 3 months for some basic understandings of several 'better' ways.Ö.nothing's changed.   Wink
Logged

"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."
hjon71
Field Bee
***
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 909


Location: SW Tenn


« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2014, 03:15:25 PM »

Iddee- I have a refundable deposit down on an elio grin
I can't afford a Tesla model at all Cry

As far as value I think the elio is a much better deal. But the Tesla Model S is by far the sexier/coolest afro one.
Logged

Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2014, 01:13:48 AM »

THERE IS A BETTER WAY.
There is no doubt you are correct, but until the streets of DC look like those of Kiev, I donít think the politicians will make any real changes. Sad  Thatís just the way our pseudo democracy works; itís got some fundamental design flaws! 

Itís a noble cause to identify better alternatives, but in the meantime Iíve always figured a psychology degree might be a real asset in the financial system weíre dealt with.  So often, supply vs demand price setting is completely overridden by human speculation and greed.  Economic theory canít explain behavior (at least in the short term).  So whatís left to predict behavior, psychology!  grin

I know a little Freud, Maslow, Skinner, Jung, et al. but Iím just a grasshopper in field.   I figure some of these ďanalystsĒ the big banks employ are true Masters in the field.  They know the buttons to push to get the masses to do what they want.  Pretty impressive in a scary kind of way! 
Logged
BlueBee
Galactic Bee
******
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 4506

Location: Mid Michigan


« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2014, 01:18:26 AM »

Compare the tesla to the Elio and where do you stand?
Iíve always thought a vehicle like the Elio is a great idea; especially if it was built with some performance features, had a nice ride, some creature comforts, and descent mpg.  Most cars I see in the morning commute just have one occupant inside; so why not offer a nice single seat commuter that is fun to drive and saves money?  Seems like a no brainer to me, but I'm not a marketer.  All I know is people have tried these 3 wheelers and micro cars beforeÖand failed!  So I just donít know how to call this one. I dunno
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Beemaster's Beekeeping Ring
Previous | Home | Join | Random | Next
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines | Sitemap Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.257 seconds with 21 queries.

Google visited last this page Today at 09:56:44 AM