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Author Topic: TSLA  (Read 1522 times)

Offline hjon71

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TSLA
« on: March 09, 2014, 01:52:09 AM »
Any body into Tesla?
I know their cars are dead sexy :shock: and I would love to have one. But the base $40k is too much for me to consider.
Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy

Offline T Beek

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2014, 12:05:01 PM »
Are they running on hay yet?  :laugh:  Darn, I'm trying to see beyond such things as the TSLA….kinda like Mr. Tesla  ;)
"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."

Offline hjon71

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2014, 12:30:32 AM »
Btw, I intended for this to be about stock purchase, not the car. If that matters to anyone :?
Down 2 days in a row......I REALLY want to buy some now :-D
Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2014, 03:32:22 AM »
Despite what I’m about to say, I sure wish I bought TSLA at the IPO! 

By traditional evaluations no logical “investor” would touch TSLA at anything over about $20 a share; it’s about $240 now.  So it’s inflated 10x by hot air and hype.  As Cramer says it’s a cult stock that follows its own rules like most cults.  This is a company that sells less cars in a YEAR than Ford Motor sells in 5 days, and yet is has a valuation (Market Cap $30B) that is half that of Ford Motor ($60B).  This is like a tech bubble stock of the late 90s.  They kept on going higher and higher until a recession finally burst the bubble.  I don’t see a recession in the near future so this bubble probably still has some legs.  Problem is, it’s irrational and very unpredictable.

TSLA continues to loose money and dilute stock to build things like gigafactories.  Beeks generally frown upon the idea of printing money (which diluting stock is).  TSLA has never made money by GAAP standards.  The amount of shares short relative to the float is pretty high which means a lot of people think it’s going to fall and they’ll make money if/when that happens.  However shorts on a momentum/cult stock like TSLA usually have the reverse effect in the short term.  They drive up valuations to crazy levels because so many people are forced to “buy” shares to cover their shorts if the price ticks up.

Personally I think their business model looks too much like GMs EV1 of the 1990s.  A cool little car for the Hollywood elite types to buy that will run OK in warm climates.  We all know what eventually happened to the EV1.  The major difference I see here is TSLA has the price tag so high (MSRP 70K to 95K) that the margins SHOULD eventually make money if there are enough people in Hollywood to keep shelling out 80K for a 4600lbs car.  GM only leased the EV1s.

Personally I think the “Better Place” electric car company had a better paradigm but even that went bankrupt and got liquidated in 2013.

IMO, it’s risky to buy TSLA, but even riskier to short them.  I’ve gotten burned big time shorting this type of irrational exuberance in the late 1990s.  You never know when the crazies will bail from their crazy train.

Offline T Beek

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2014, 10:29:36 AM »
Awesome info……Thanks Blue….I love this kind of 'background' data….. 
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Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2014, 05:23:07 PM »
I see your TSLA is down to $237 today. :-D

Offline hjon71

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2014, 07:12:24 PM »
I know, I know. I haven't bought.....but I really want to 8-)
Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2014, 06:28:35 PM »
Your TSLA dropped to $230 on Friday.  If it was great at $256 two weeks ago, it must be a real bargain now  :-D

So what would drive this crazy stock higher?  There are a lot of people short on the thing, so any semi believable positive hype could force those short to panic buy and that really shoots a stock up.  So what is left to hype?  Profits?  No, they don’t have any.  Sales?  No, they’re minuscule.  A new $5 billion dollar gigafactory?  No, see how A123 systems went bust.  Elon splitting the atom?  No, I doubt it.  So what’s left?   

I would submit to you that if they want to remain in the auto business, they need to buy out a real auto maker; sooner than later.  History has proven over and over again that small volume niche cars aren’t viable businesses unless they’re in the high end sports car industry.

One of the real advantages Tesla has right now is the huge pile of funny money (stock) Wall Street has afforded them due to their celebrity status.  That won’t last forever.  They would be foolish not to use that money to buy out some profitable businesses before their stock falls back to earth.  They can’t live off hot air forever ya know.   

I think Fiat/Chrysler would be a good target to try to buy since their market cap is only 13 billion and something Tesla might be able to buy out with a stock swap.  Last year Fiat made over 2 billion in profit, while Tesla made nothing.  But in the crazy Wall Street world, Tesla is the bigger more valuable company by 2x!  If Tesla buys out a real auto company like Chrysler, Lord only knows how high this stock might go on the hype.  That’s why I don’t short the high flyers.

Meanwhile I hear VW has created a Lithium Air battery with 3 times the capacity of Lithium Ion batteries.  Does that make Tesla’s new $5Billon Lithium Ion gigafactory obsolete even before it’s built?  Anybody can, and has, built a car with an electric motor, it’s the battery technology that has always been the problem.  Does Tesla really know more about batteries than VW and everybody else?

Offline hjon71

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2014, 08:43:38 PM »
I am clueless. I haven't done any sort of homework on the subject, I just like that Tesla produced and brought a new product to market. I can't afford one but I sure would like to. So, the next best thing in my mind is buy some stock. They have BIG plans...... what if the Tesla auto segment got bought, instead of buying?
Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2014, 10:09:16 PM »
Who would pay $30Billion+ for a company that loses money and only makes 22,500 cars per year?  Who has $30Billion to waste?  Only guy that comes to mind might be Zuckerburg. :)  If he’ll throw away $19 Billion of other people’s money (FB stock) on a phone texting company with 55 employees, well then anything is possible.   I think I would have bought Fiat/Chrysler if I had $19B to burn. :evil: 

The other autos aren’t going to buy out Tesla because the other autos aren’t worth that much.  GM and Ford are only worth $60 billion.  They sure aren’t going to dilute half their value to buy a company who’s technology they already have.  GM invented the modern day EV about 20 years ago; it’s called the EV1.  VW is worth about $120 billion, but why would they want Tesla when VW may have the battery breakthrough?  Tesla might make a nice high end Leaf, but Nissan can’t afford to buy them out since Nissan is only worth $35B.  I really can’t think of any good reason a auto company would want to buy out TSLA.  Telsa’s claim to fame was putting computer batteries in series to run a motor.  Is that IP really valuable to anybody else?       

You say they have big plans, but there are plenty of people out there with “big plans” as well.  Why bet on Telsa?  What good CEO doesn’t have big plans for success?  Don’t you think Fisker had big plans?   How about A123 systems?  How about the Volt?  How about the EV1?  What about the Nissan leaf?  What about Delorean :-D    Everybody’s got big plans, dreaming is the easy part!

Actually doesn’t the Leaf already got what Tesla dreams of?  An affordable electric vehicle (MSRP 30K vs 70K), more volume (47K vs 22K), already has a gigafactory (Smyrna, TN vs wet dream), and is part of a real company to take advantage of economies of scale.  Nissan made over $4 billion last year, Tesla made $0.

Offline hjon71

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2014, 02:07:45 AM »
Way to sugarcoat it. Lol
I know, I asked. So I will save me money and wait for a winner. Btw if you hear of one I'd appreciate a heads up.
Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2014, 03:26:16 AM »
LOL.  I never said the CAR wasn’t a winner.  It’s the STOCK I’m dubious of at these valuations.  In all honesty there are some fuel cell company valuations that are even crazier.  Many of these high PE type stocks are just a gambling game; pure speculation.  Some turn into Google, most turn into Netscape.  It’s probably still wise to know some of the fundamental before throwing money in. :idunno:  The analysts on Wall Street can’t always be counted on for altruism. :'(

I think the stats still say you’re better off betting on a general broad index than trying to pick winners and losers.  However the celebrity stocks have sure done well lately, no doubt about it.  I sure wish I bought TSLA last year.  It's gone up something like 700% since last year! 

You know me, I’m a data guy. :)  I just pass on the data and let the people decide.  X:X   

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2014, 08:53:25 PM »
TSLA popped up to $240 on analyst hype early this week, then dropped back to $228 by week’s end.

Here’s a question for you.  What if Tesla is wrong about selling 35,000 of their $70K to $90K cars this year?  The auto market can be pretty fickle and the marketing guys are often wrong with their guesses (yes they are guesses).  Along with a fickle market, Tesla also has to contend with a lot of states trying to shut them down; that can’t be good news for sales can it?  How many $90K toys can a company really sell per year?   How many $90K Porsche 911s sold last year?  How many $100K vipers?  How many $76K Z06s?  Hint, a whole lot less than 35,000 units.

Chrysler had hoped to sell 2000 of its new vipers a year.  Last year it sold 591.  They are now idling the plant to burn off inventory which has ballooned to a full year.  Might it not be a concern for Tesla if they have to idle their gigafactory for a year due to slow sales?  Idle plants are a huge capital drain.  Where do they get the $$$ to keep the lights on?  Seems like a “risk” that a responsible “analyst” would mention….just sayin.

There’s two ways to make money on stocks; through speculation or inherent value.  Tesla stock is WAY beyond inherent value (as I’ve pointed out in all these posts) so the only way you make money at this point is playing a game of chicken with other speculators.  Some have made an absolute killing riding this bubble up, some swing trade on the hype, but at this point it’s pure gambling and you sure don’t want to be the last one standing on the bubble!  

The question an investor now has to ask themselves is this :-D:  “Do you feel lucky, punk” (courtesy of Mr. Eastwood).  

Offline T Beek

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2014, 10:11:23 AM »
Excellent discussion…..but there is third way some of us use to make money these days (and a few really good and fair ways too - that are stifled and ignored). 

Under our current corrupt and obsolete economic system the Elite no longer have to use their own money, so if they win they really win.  But if they loose - they still win, because of the rules allowing for corporate bailouts that exempt a deserved prosecution of the responsible parties (BIG Banks and their Bookmakers and Lawyers), rules written by BIG corporate entities, many 'claiming' American Status and its implied prestige when it serves their interests, yet will do everything in their power to contribute the absolute 'least' back to society.

THERE IS A BETTER WAY.
"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."

Online iddee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2014, 10:44:25 AM »
""THERE IS A BETTER WAY.""

What is the better way?
"Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me . . . Anything can happen, child. Anything can be"

*Shel Silverstein*

Online iddee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2014, 10:46:27 AM »
Compare the tesla to the Elio and where do you stand?

http://www.eliomotors.com/
"Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me . . . Anything can happen, child. Anything can be"

*Shel Silverstein*

Offline T Beek

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2014, 11:21:03 AM »
""THERE IS A BETTER WAY.""

What is the better way?

Awe C'mon iddee;  Revisit my posts (or simply take the time to read them for the first time) over the last 3 months for some basic understandings of several 'better' ways.….nothing's changed.   ;)
"Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who say they've found it."

Offline hjon71

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2014, 04:15:25 PM »
Iddee- I have a refundable deposit down on an elio :-D
I can't afford a Tesla model at all :'(

As far as value I think the elio is a much better deal. But the Tesla Model S is by far the sexier/coolest :mrgreen: one.
Quite difficult matters can be explained even to a slow-witted man, if only he has not already adopted a wrong opinion about them; but the simplest things cannot be made clear even to a very intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, and knows indubitably, the truth of the matter under consideration. -Leo Tolstoy

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2014, 02:13:48 AM »
THERE IS A BETTER WAY.
There is no doubt you are correct, but until the streets of DC look like those of Kiev, I don’t think the politicians will make any real changes. :(  That’s just the way our pseudo democracy works; it’s got some fundamental design flaws! 

It’s a noble cause to identify better alternatives, but in the meantime I’ve always figured a psychology degree might be a real asset in the financial system we’re dealt with.  So often, supply vs demand price setting is completely overridden by human speculation and greed.  Economic theory can’t explain behavior (at least in the short term).  So what’s left to predict behavior, psychology!  :-D

I know a little Freud, Maslow, Skinner, Jung, et al. but I’m just a grasshopper in field.   I figure some of these “analysts” the big banks employ are true Masters in the field.  They know the buttons to push to get the masses to do what they want.  Pretty impressive in a scary kind of way! 

Offline BlueBee

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Re: TSLA
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2014, 02:18:26 AM »
Compare the tesla to the Elio and where do you stand?
I’ve always thought a vehicle like the Elio is a great idea; especially if it was built with some performance features, had a nice ride, some creature comforts, and descent mpg.  Most cars I see in the morning commute just have one occupant inside; so why not offer a nice single seat commuter that is fun to drive and saves money?  Seems like a no brainer to me, but I'm not a marketer.  All I know is people have tried these 3 wheelers and micro cars before…and failed!  So I just don’t know how to call this one. :idunno:

 

anything