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Author Topic: stock bubble  (Read 2074 times)
T Beek
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2014, 06:03:21 AM »

The market needs the correction or deflating if you will. I hope that I don't get banned(if you look at half of my posts you'll understand) in the next 3 yrs, because I would like to revisit this thread and compare then/now.

Even if you do get banned, which I also hope you don't, you can still visit….. Smiley
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hjon71
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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2014, 09:13:27 PM »

That was intended tongue-in-cheek. Seeing it quoted I realize it didn't come off as intended.
Anywho.... We say market correction alot lately, me especially. But another Big reason for sudden sharp drops is Profit Taking. Just keeping it real cool
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GSF
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2014, 05:36:33 AM »

This is swaying off the beaten path a little bit but; I heard a financial advisor talk about the unfunded liabilities (200+ trillion? - don't remember exactly). He said folks ask about that a lot. The question; "What are they (govt) going to do about the unfunded liabilities?" He said that's a no brainer, the answer; They're not going to pay it. The money won't be there.

(me) Then the results of that (not paying) will be mighty ugly.
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hjon71
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2014, 06:02:23 AM »

This thread isn't getting a big response so I'll bite.

Those unfunded liabilities generally refer to social security and Medicare. Which is a flat out lie. They were funded and still are by workers everyday. The problem is the fund where that money goes has been plundered and spent on other things. So NOW it is short.
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T Beek
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2014, 06:44:03 AM »

This is swaying off the beaten path a little bit but; I heard a financial advisor talk about the unfunded liabilities (200+ trillion? - don't remember exactly). He said folks ask about that a lot. The question; "What are they (govt) going to do about the unfunded liabilities?" He said that's a no brainer, the answer; They're not going to pay it. The money won't be there.

(me) Then the results of that (not paying) will be mighty ugly.


The figure I'm hearing and seeing is closer to 800 trillion….but none of that debt matters because its mostly an illusion in the disguise of INTEREST and corrupt ownership and speculation in 'futures' of the worlds resources.  There's not enough 'money' in the world to ever pay it all back.  NEVER.  

Paying it back isn't the problem….people loosing 'faith' in a corrupt economic system is the problem….or will be once the truth is realized by a majority….who then decide to DO SOMETHING about it……...

hjon71; you're on to something now, the 'unfunded liabilities' economists (REAL ECONOMISTS) are discussing don't include SS or medicare.  There is much 'purposely' placed confusion on the role of these programs solvency and their future expanding costs and/or shortfalls.

A LAND VALUE TAX ala geonomics would solve it in less than a generation and could end up negating the need for any type of 'social welfare' programs, whether they were designed to help the poor or enrich the already wealthy.  Both would be off the middle class teat under a geonomics based system.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 07:10:54 AM by T Beek » Logged

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KD4MOJ
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« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2014, 02:04:49 PM »

Bubble or no bubble (hate that word)... just pay attention to the market. Especially be wary of the "sky is falling" type commentaries, even on the WSJ. In addition to my "real" job, I have the computer tuned to CNBC most of the day... and I make trades every day (not a day trader, just trade daily). Anyone can still make money. Lots of times I will buy and sell the same stock multiple times a week. Weird I know but it's a way to make some $$$! I definitely don't buy any China stocks. And yes Cramer is my hero!


Now back to my bees....  grin


...DOUG
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kathyp
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« Reply #26 on: February 10, 2014, 03:22:16 PM »

Quote
They were funded and still are by workers everyday.

used to be.  not so anymore.  not only are there not enough people paying it to keep it going, but there are many more people taking out that were ever intended.  + the life span has gone up.

consider how many people are drawing disability.  i just heard an ad on the radio.  "you paid for this.  it's an entitlement".  maybe you paid some, but not as much as you are going to take out.  what about all the people with disabilities who never paid in?  there's no means testing.  disabled = get money.  and what is a disability?  when my granddaughter was diagnosed with ADHD, the office assistant said "you can apply for disability for her now!".

one person may pay into ssi, but 5 may take out if that payer dies and the family collects.  again, no means testing.  the worker may have left the family well off with multimillion dollar insurance policies, but they can still collect.

off the top of my head, the numbers i remember were 12 years being the average life expectancy of the early ssi payers after retirement.  that number is now 20 years or better. 

medicare:  everyone can get it payed in or not.  the average senior will have taken out all they put in within 10 years. 

both programs are welfare after a point.  you are getting OPM. 

not something the seniors (like me) like to hear, but there it is.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

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hjon71
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« Reply #27 on: February 10, 2014, 08:55:08 PM »

Quote
used to be. not so anymore. not only are there not enough people paying it to keep it going, but there are many more people taking out that were ever intended. + the life span has gone up.

You missed my point entirely.  Why do I bother I dunno
Social Security and Medicare if they hadn't been plundered would have an excess of money. Not because the amount paid in was ever enough to satisfy the later payouts but because of compounding interest.
If an individual starts an IRA as soon as they begin working and funds it until they retire the amount in the account will GREATLY exceed the amount deposited. Will you argue the account isn't funded simply because those amounts do not match?

I believe some answers go the way they do because party politics requires it....
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kathyp
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« Reply #28 on: February 10, 2014, 09:33:11 PM »

Quote
Will you argue the account isn't funded simply because those amounts do not match?

i didn't miss your point.  you point is inaccurate.

it's not funded into the future because there are not enough people paying into it.  the money owed to the "lock box" even if it were in the "lock box" is not enough to sustain either program.  that's why they keep talking about the programs running out of money.  SSI money, on average, got about 2% per year.  that's not enough to sustain the program with the number of people drawing on it.

 Medicare never was going to sustain itself.  it was a welfare program from the start.  the only good thing about medicare is that it is kind of means tested.  not to worry.  there's no need for it anymore.  that's why the prez felt comfortable raiding it for obama care.  there's really no difference between medicare and subsidized obama care "insurance".  we just have to ween the old folks off the expectation of obama care and they can have medicaid type care along with everyone else.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
hjon71
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« Reply #29 on: February 10, 2014, 11:10:44 PM »

 Look at the chart under the tab -History
I do not know what percentage of the total goes to which program. Does anyone have a link to that info? I may look around..
   http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_(United_States)


This is the establishment of the social security trust fund in 1940
 http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/chapter-7/subchapter-II


This chart shows the running balance of the trust fund. Notice anything funny? I will wait for responses.
 http://www.ssa.gov/history/tftable.html
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kathyp
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« Reply #30 on: February 11, 2014, 11:23:25 AM »

i get that the money is not physically there. 

my point is that even if you go by the assumption that, by law, that money must be paid back into SSI, there is not enough to sustain the program.  we have fewer and fewer people paying in and more people talking out.  we have made a promise that many will insist be kept, but there's not the money to keep it....except to completely turn it into a welfare program...and it's just about there.

we would do better to give every worker a check for what they have put in, + interest, and let them invest as they see fit.  then you could just call the rest of the people what they are, welfare cases.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
T Beek
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« Reply #31 on: February 11, 2014, 12:19:46 PM »

With an economic system based on 'geonomics' (not the same as geo-economics), we could eliminate the need for 'social welfare entrapment programs' designed for the poor simply by ending the monopolization/exploitation (limiting pollution) of the worlds resources, AKA; 'welfare for the rich'.  

Which economic system costs society more?  The facts (economics is a science, not an ideology) may surprise more than a few.  Not just financially speaking, but societal.

A "citizens dividend" (look it up) could then be used in any way an individual chooses, the lazy could still be lazy but 'we' would no longer be paying for their sloth (divisions limited).  

But most importantly, entrepreneurs and hard workers would be allowed to create WEALTH the old fashioned way…..and 'self-serving speculators' enriching themselves on the worlds riches (OUR COMMON WEALTH, that which is freely offered by the planet) would/could/should come to an end.

……it could happen….and I believe it will….after we've exhausted all other options…………………………..it is our way…….. cool.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 12:41:31 PM by T Beek » Logged

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GSF
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« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2014, 12:57:42 PM »

Since we're talking about a stock bubble I thought this would be interesting. Here's a link to Market Watch. They have a chart that's superimposed over a chart prior to the 1929 crash. Don't know if it means anything or not but it's interesting;


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11
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hjon71
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« Reply #33 on: February 11, 2014, 08:14:34 PM »

Quote
i get that the money is not physically there.


Correct. But more importantly what else isn't there? Remember the trust fund is an interest bearing account. So where is the interest? Imagine even 2% (Im being conservative)*
compounding on billions of dollars year after year. But the official numbers do not reflect those numbers AT ALL.
Just Income(from taxes), Expenditures, Surplus/Deficit, Net Amount.

We are being robbed left and right and lied to about it.

*Chart of MONTHLY interest paid semiannually.
 http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/intRates.html

If someone can show some evidence otherwise, I would love to see it. Honestly.
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hjon71
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« Reply #34 on: February 11, 2014, 09:12:41 PM »

OK I feel feel foolish Undecided

I will say this right up front.
Sorry Beeks. I was wrong.

Totals listed for SS income include interest. It took some digging but I managed to piece the year 2011 together. Silly me. I jumped to an error due to lack of info. Carry on, lesson learned.

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kathyp
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Re:
« Reply #35 on: February 11, 2014, 10:26:00 PM »

That's ok.  Its not like they make this stuff easy to understand.   It really does take digging and you did that.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
hjon71
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Re:
« Reply #36 on: February 11, 2014, 10:34:05 PM »

That's ok.  Its not like they make this stuff easy to understand.   It really does take digging and you did that.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

I feel dirty  Wink
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kathyp
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« Reply #37 on: February 11, 2014, 11:04:07 PM »

LOL
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
hjon71
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« Reply #38 on: February 13, 2014, 11:43:35 PM »

Since we're talking about a stock bubble I thought this would be interesting. Here's a link to Market Watch. They have a chart that's superimposed over a chart prior to the 1929 crash. Don't know if it means anything or not but it's interesting;


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11


I think someone has too much time on their hands. The market must rise, call it interest, inflation, or whatever you want. It is simply the nature of the beast.
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jayj200
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« Reply #39 on: February 22, 2014, 08:10:41 AM »

Oh NO
Double your prices for all goods sold
only falsifies the market
buoys the govt
cause taxes rise by 200 to 2000 %
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