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Author Topic: stock bubble  (Read 2364 times)
kathyp
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« on: January 13, 2014, 06:35:34 PM »

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/10/when-does-a-bubble-spell-trouble/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLE_Video_Top

was going to put this in another thread, but it was already pretty OT.  thought bluebee might be interested.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
hjon71
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2014, 11:53:54 PM »

Not a bad article. Not the whole picture either though...
The market is over inflated due to Fed pumping, ahem, I mean quantitative easing. It only takes a mention of reducing the pump to see the deflation occur. Coincidence? I think not.
When does over inflation=bubble? When the investor/market decides. No sooner.
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kathyp
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2014, 12:02:27 AM »

Quote
The market is over inflated due to Fed pumping, ahem, I mean quantitative easing.

i think there was some of that in there, but not the main point of the article maybe.  that's been my point though; that there is nothing substantial underpinning the rise in the market.  everyone knows this.  it's just that no one has hit the big sell button yet.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
hjon71
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2014, 12:56:16 AM »

Quote
The market is over inflated due to Fed pumping, ahem, I mean quantitative easing.

i think there was some of that in there, but not the main point of the article maybe.  that's been my point though; that there is nothing substantial underpinning the rise in the market.  everyone knows this.  it's just that no one has hit the big sell button yet.

I read the article twice before posting, and again after your response.
No, there is No mention of the Fed creating/perpetuating the 'bubble' just their fear of one occurring. Pretty grievous oversight IMO. But to be expected.
We seem to agree as much as disagree lol. I am embarressed to say how high the market will go(It is a BUYBUYBUY for me. That prediction is based solely on past performance/history. Depending on who you ask it is wise to review the past- Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. Or as many rightly say- Past performance is no indication of future returns.

I freely admit I am not a formally educated pundit of any form. But I do educate myself every day. So if nothing else my advice is free smiley
« Last Edit: January 14, 2014, 02:26:35 AM by hjon71 » Logged
T Beek
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2014, 05:22:06 AM »

Oh boy….I've 'tried' to explain this before and was ridiculed……….so am treading lightly here.

The only financial BUBBLE we have to fear are those concerning DEBT, because most of the DEBT, especially debt 'owned' (not necessarily owed) by Banks can never, will NEVER be paid……pssst….it NEVER existed in the first place (student loans and credit cards are a small part). 

Our entire economy is 'faith' based and completely reliant on BUBBLES to enrich the wealthy when the bubbles finally burst.   It was set up to be that way.  OLD NEWS.

Today in modern times, this DEBT is being used to make 'magic' wealth for the already wealthy, thanks to the collusion by the FEDERAL RESERVE. 

There's your bubble (in a nut shell).  Intrigued? 

*****Still too much or too long?*******I tried to keep it short this time…..
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hjon71
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2014, 05:46:57 AM »

TBeek, I have some understanding of the "debt-bubble". Which is another entirely different matter, And infinitely more serious. Which is why I am an End the Fed proponent.
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T Beek
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2014, 06:28:07 AM »

TBeek, I have some understanding of the "debt-bubble". Which is another entirely different matter, And infinitely more serious. Which is why I am an End the Fed proponent.

Me too!!!!!  I've been advocating the FEDs abolishment for at least 40 years.  That's why the reaction I sometimes get around here is so surprising  huh.  Seems some of us really can't see the forest through the trees.  Wink

And you are correct, our DEBT BUBBLE will make the HOUSING BUBBLE look like a Cake-Walk.  Don't worry though, the wealthy will come out just fine…... shocked
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kathyp
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2014, 03:58:46 PM »

Hjon, on this one i think we agree completely.  and there is no doubt that the debt is a large part of the - economic picture.  debt has it's own issues.  in the case of the stock market, it would be iffy right now regardless of the debt because there is nothing real under it.

someone will hit the button and that will be it.  it will be interesting to see what causes it.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2014, 04:31:47 PM »

Hjon, on this one i think we agree completely.  and there is no doubt that the debt is a large part of the - economic picture.  debt has it's own issues.  in the case of the stock market, it would be iffy right now regardless of the debt because there is nothing real under it.

someone will hit the button and that will be it.  it will be interesting to see what causes it.


 applause applause applause  By Golly- I think she's Got (getting) it!!!! applause applause applause  (Not certain about someone hitting a button though, more like a series of earthquakes  Smiley
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hjon71
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2014, 12:19:16 AM »

Quote


 applause applause applause  By Golly- I think she's Got (getting) it!!!! applause applause applause  (Not certain about someone hitting a button though, more like a series of earthquakes  Smiley

That is what gets people labeled after stinky body parts.


The market is by its very nature a risk/gamble, some say not unintentionally. Idk huh The underpinnings are naturally shaky at best, nature of the beast. Anyway, how do you think someone post '32 crash would have felt if they were told "In 30yrs the market will be over 700"?
Incredulous?  Probably. But it happened. And can/will rise barring a few probable episodes. I could list them but I think you know.
IF things settle somewhat and panic doesn't happen, in say 20yrs. everyone will marvel at the new high and wonder how it happened. Or it could all come crashing down and America as we know it will be gone.What do I know?
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T Beek
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2014, 04:55:40 AM »

Careful hjon71, some might accuse you of acting too smart  Wink 

Once the market is understood for being the illusion it has always been, was designed to be; for the benefit of the wealthy…..it all becomes clear.  Not that money can't be made.  I did OK while I played the game.  Lost quite a bit in 2007 (as much as 40% of some stock), difference being it was my money, not someone else's.   Most I've since recovered and now I'm out of it due to my belief that………the next fall will be spectacular………..after the Housing Bust, there's 'nothing' left to secure the next crash.   Nothing was learned after the last time…..Its still business as usual.

This 'house of cards' will have no place to go but to the bottom. 

We'll see plenty of folks awakening 'after' the storm….. Sad
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hjon71
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2014, 05:37:10 PM »

 Lips Sealed TBeek

I wouldn't say the market has NO value or that it is purely illusion.
I suppose what I'm saying comes down to the market as a means for capital for businesses is a good thing. The advantage taken of it, not so much.
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hjon71
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« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2014, 08:03:34 AM »

HELLO
   Hello
        hello...
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cidersabuzzin
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vroom... vroom... but more like phut** phut**!


« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2014, 04:36:42 PM »

Not a bad article. Not the whole picture either though...
The market is over inflated due to Fed pumping, ahem, I mean quantitative easing. It only takes a mention of reducing the pump to see the deflation occur. Coincidence? I think not.
When does over inflation=bubble? When the investor/market decides.

Yes, but who is the investor?  Wink
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The Ladies could still teach the Borg a thing or two!....and maybe us too, so long as we don't go too far to the left or right and fall off the edge...
hjon71
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2014, 05:01:18 PM »

Who isn't?
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2014, 10:36:27 PM »

kathyp your timing was pretty good.  thought i'd bump this up considering the recent downward trend in the market.
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kathyp
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« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2014, 11:09:00 PM »

yeah, this has the potential to be pretty bad.  this is an international thing and the emerging markets are dropping too.  + the bond market may not be the safe haven to run to.  who has money to float or pay off bonds?

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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
hjon71
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« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2014, 12:40:12 AM »

The market needs the correction or deflating if you will. I hope that I don't get banned(if you look at half of my posts you'll understand) in the next 3 yrs, because I would like to revisit this thread and compare then/now.
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kathyp
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« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2014, 10:10:34 AM »

you are right about the correction.  everyone has been watching for that.  the potential problems are that 1. there is no underpinning...no real value...in most of the market right now.  it's been kept up by pumping.  so...if we start to correct, and anything happens during that correction, we'll drop like a stone.

2. this is international and not just our markets.  emerging markets are what i'm watching.  lots of people had invested lots of money there because they looked good.  they are, at best, stagnant right now. 

3. we know that Europe is in the crapper economically right now and it would not take much to tip them.  they also hold a tremendous amount of our debt.  they are counting on that money and if there is a twitch about that, they are in trouble.

+ the bond market is where people go when the stock market isn't doing so well.  who would invest in most offerings right now?  i know i'd be hesitant.  maybe Puerto Rican rum bonds   grin
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2014, 10:28:37 AM »

I can only suggest that everyone pay close attention to China's economy right now.  (So glad I'm out of the stock market this time around)  cool
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