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Author Topic: winter in dixie  (Read 2100 times)
Joe D
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« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2014, 12:42:16 AM »

It's gone to have to change pretty quick to have an early spring here.




Joe
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sawdstmakr
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« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2014, 06:12:47 AM »

GSF,
Even FL is having a cold winter. Right now it is 34 degrees F right now. The heat pump has been on a lot all night long. Knew we were going to have a cold winter this year when the Alaska TV shows kept talking about how cold it stayed during the summer. Never heard about that on the news. They don't want to dis bunk the global warming thing.
How long will it take for them to go back to saying that we are causing it to be too cold?
Jim
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GSF
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« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2014, 06:20:29 AM »

(10framer) gary, the good news is i'm also predicting an early spring.  

Keep us posted!



Sawdustmaker; What Alaska TV shows, or more precise, how do you tune into them?
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10framer
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« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2014, 10:09:51 AM »

jim,
a couple of papers came out in 2012 predicting colder winters in the u.s. and europe because of the the receding ice caps.  i flew across the andes in 2011 and there were no snow caps.  coral reefs are dying due to ocean temperatures going up.  i don't see any way to deny that the temperature of the planet is on a rising trend just because we're having a cold winter.  i don't know how much of it is a man made and how much is a natural trend, though.  i do know we used to have winters that lasted into march just about every year when i was a kid and last january we were having highs near 80 in january and i never remember that happening in the 70's and 80's.  when i see the polar ice cap come back i'll believe that there isn't some kind of global warming going on.
rob
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Moots
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« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2014, 10:46:55 AM »

jim,
a couple of papers came out in 2012 predicting colder winters in the u.s. and europe because of the the receding ice caps.  i flew across the andes in 2011 and there were no snow caps.  coral reefs are dying due to ocean temperatures going up.  i don't see any way to deny that the temperature of the planet is on a rising trend just because we're having a cold winter.  i don't know how much of it is a man made and how much is a natural trend, though.  i do know we used to have winters that lasted into march just about every year when i was a kid and last january we were having highs near 80 in january and i never remember that happening in the 70's and 80's.  when i see the polar ice cap come back i'll believe that there isn't some kind of global warming going on.
rob

rob,
I'm guessing this discussion doesn't really belong in this part of the forum...

But from a general "statistical" point of view...looking at a planet that's 4.5 BILLION years old and trying to reach some significant conclusion, one way or the other, as to where it's headed in the "big picture", based on personal observations is pretty silly.  As a matter of fact, trying to make huge claims regarding it's future direction based on the 100 years or so of recorded data that's available doesn't really pass the smell test either in my opinion.

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Ken
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« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2014, 11:15:51 AM »

All I can say is my personal almanac called for more snow this winter than we had all of last summer. And it turned out to be true. I will be writing next years edition soon if ya'll want advance notice to get a copy!! grin grin
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10framer
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« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2014, 01:07:55 PM »

jim,
a couple of papers came out in 2012 predicting colder winters in the u.s. and europe because of the the receding ice caps.  i flew across the andes in 2011 and there were no snow caps.  coral reefs are dying due to ocean temperatures going up.  i don't see any way to deny that the temperature of the planet is on a rising trend just because we're having a cold winter.  i don't know how much of it is a man made and how much is a natural trend, though.  i do know we used to have winters that lasted into march just about every year when i was a kid and last january we were having highs near 80 in january and i never remember that happening in the 70's and 80's.  when i see the polar ice cap come back i'll believe that there isn't some kind of global warming going on.
rob

rob,
I'm guessing this discussion doesn't really belong in this part of the forum...

But from a general "statistical" point of view...looking at a planet that's 4.5 BILLION years old and trying to reach some significant conclusion, one way or the other, as to where it's headed in the "big picture", based on personal observations is pretty silly.  As a matter of fact, trying to make huge claims regarding it's future direction based on the 100 years or so of recorded data that's available doesn't really pass the smell test either in my opinion.


i didn't bring it up but since we're talking about it i think we can tell things about the climate way farther back than 100 years.  we know about ice ages from tens of thousands of years ago and we know there were periods where it was a lot warmer.
we know the oceans have been higher and lower.  i plow fields in the middle of georgia and find sea shells all the time.  we may have only been recording temperatures for a short time but there are all kinds of ways tell what has happened in the past.  
the arctic ice cap is something like 20 or 30 percent the size it was 60 or 70 years ago.  a lot of land that was perma frost in alaska the last 100 years has thawed recently.  i think i can say that the planet is warmer than it was 50 years ago based off of that and be pretty safe.  
i never said anything about any big picture or make any huge claims about future trends.  i made some observations that are easily backed up.  
the world has been on a warming trend during my life time.  if you read everything i said you'll notice that i said i have no idea if it's just a natural trend or man made.  anything you see in my statement beyond that is just something you're reading into it.  
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Moots
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« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2014, 02:37:29 PM »

jim,
a couple of papers came out in 2012 predicting colder winters in the u.s. and europe because of the the receding ice caps.  i flew across the andes in 2011 and there were no snow caps.  coral reefs are dying due to ocean temperatures going up. i don't see any way to deny that the temperature of the planet is on a rising trend just because we're having a cold winter.  i don't know how much of it is a man made and how much is a natural trend, though.  i do know we used to have winters that lasted into march just about every year when i was a kid and last january we were having highs near 80 in january and i never remember that happening in the 70's and 80's.  when i see the polar ice cap come back i'll believe that there isn't some kind of global warming going on.
rob


** Emphasis added

rob,
My apologies if I misread something...seemed to me like your statement was trying to make a point.  The part I highlighted seem to imply that Global warming is undeniable.  Not knowing how old you are, It's quite possible that for much of your life the trend has been in a warming direction...Yet from '65 to '75 there was a cooling trend and predictions of a mini ice age...And now, if I'm not mistaken, recent data is showing a cooling trend since '97, that's 16 years...Some might consider that a trend!  This recent "trend" is one of the reasons we don't hear "global warming" near as much from the alarmist, but now hear "climate change" instead.  Many are predicting this cooling trend could last to the middle of this century.

Will it?  I have no idea....My only point was...I'm not convinced that anyone really knows, and any absolute statements from either side claiming an "un-deniable" stance on near any aspect of this issue makes me skeptical.  
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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
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Joe D
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« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2014, 03:25:52 PM »

I hate to put my 2cents in, but when I was a youngen in the winter, most every but not all, the ground would bee spuid up, some of yaull may not know what that is, it is when there is ice spuid up out of the ground.  That would usually be in January or February.  I haven't seen that in a good while.  So I would have to agree with Farmer,  and I would like to borrow  his plow also.



Joe
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mitch
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« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2014, 03:46:16 PM »

since when has florida become part of Dixie? never read of the battle of Jacksonville or datona. shucks youall are a different eity like California. don't get me rong on this as I have a coupla great friends in florida  but Dixie no way
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GSF
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« Reply #30 on: January 25, 2014, 07:20:45 PM »

about florida,

From my perspective the Panhandle is a totally different country than the bottom. Whole different atmosphere, folks are more countrified and friendly.

about global warming/cooling. I don't know but I do know;

The hot keeps getting hotter,
The cold keeps getting colder, and
heavy keeps getting heavier.
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10framer
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« Reply #31 on: January 25, 2014, 08:16:24 PM »

ok, i'm not going to get into a big argument over it but i did try to find something on the cooling trend since '97 because i'd never heard that before.  i looked at the epa, nasa and noaa statistics and they all show an increase.  noaa has a list of the ten hottest years since 1880 and 9 of them are after 2000 and the other is 1998.  i love a good conspiracy theory but i don't see how all these organizations could possibly fake the data or what they could possibly gain by doing it.  anyway, it's been a cold winter in the south so far. 
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Moots
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« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2014, 12:05:23 AM »

ok, i'm not going to get into a big argument over it but i did try to find something on the cooling trend since '97 because i'd never heard that before.  i looked at the epa, nasa and noaa statistics and they all show an increase.  noaa has a list of the ten hottest years since 1880 and 9 of them are after 2000 and the other is 1998.  i love a good conspiracy theory but i don't see how all these organizations could possibly fake the data or what they could possibly gain by doing it.  anyway, it's been a cold winter in the south so far. 


10,
Here's a couple references concerning the cooling trend...

The Telegraph - Sept 2013

C3 Headlines

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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
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chux
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« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2014, 05:46:48 AM »

The global climate shifts. Everybody should agree on that. We shouldn't be surprised to see a cooling or heating trend over any period of time. Those trends could last 5 years or 5 generations. Who knows?Huh Beekeeping will be modified by the individual for his or her climate.

The earth was probably a huge greenhouse for the dino's. After the Great Flood (meteor, or whatever you think caused the climate change), things cooled and the dinos died. Now we may be warming back up. Who knows how long it will last???!!!
 
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10framer
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« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2014, 09:10:53 AM »

well, i guess we're going to do this.  the telegraph is just a propaganda machine like some of those sites that "report" things about gmo's and monsanto but never show a statistic or list links that don't exist as their reference (you can search all you want but you never find the actual studies they quote).  1998 was a peak year and if you look at the numbers they reference every year after 98 except for 99 and 00 is substantiallly warmer than every year before 98 and 99 and 00 are warmer than all but a couple of years.  so, yes it's cooler than 98 but it's warmer than 97, 96, 95, 94, 93.............after i went halfway up the page i stopped bothering.  
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Moots
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« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2014, 10:28:06 AM »

well, i guess we're going to do this.  the telegraph is just a propaganda machine like some of those sites that "report" things about gmo's and monsanto but never show a statistic or list links that don't exist as their reference (you can search all you want but you never find the actual studies they quote).  1998 was a peak year and if you look at the numbers they reference every year after 98 except for 99 and 00 is substantiallly warmer than every year before 98 and 99 and 00 are warmer than all but a couple of years.  so, yes it's cooler than 98 but it's warmer than 97, 96, 95, 94, 93.............after i went halfway up the page i stopped bothering.  

10,
You said you had "never heard it", I simply showed you where it was being said...
If you think those sources are un-reputable, that's fine! 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there a huge email scandal a while back where many of the scientist responsible for gathering the data that you quote as "undeniable" were coordinating the intentional withholding of data that didn't support their global warming theories.  huh

As I said earlier, I think it's wise to have a certain amount of skepticism concerning claims made by either side of this discussion. 

I think chux pretty much summed up how I feel about  this entire issue....  grin 
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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
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10framer
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« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2014, 11:09:41 AM »

could we see a cooling trend in the near future?  i have no way of knowing.  there is no doubt that the planet has warmed and cooled many times in the past and that it will again in the future.  we just seem to be warming now.  again, i'm not looking to prove anything here i'm just saying that we are in some kind of warming cycle right now.  these recent posts have lead me to read a lot of stuff.  one interesting theory is that as the ice cap melts above us it will actually lead to more cold winters in the northern hemisphere because it changes the jet stream.  i also found something showing that we have actually had a cooling trend in the south east united states while the rest of the country has been getting warmer.  i'm not a hard core global warming/climate change person but i do think it has become warmer over the last 25 or 30 years in particular.

so....it's supposed to get cold again next week.    
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Carol
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« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2014, 12:24:05 PM »

All I know is....the bees are bringing in lots and lots of pollen today.
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derekm
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« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2014, 05:33:06 PM »

well, i guess we're going to do this.  the telegraph is just a propaganda machine like some of those sites that "report" things about gmo's and monsanto but never show a statistic or list links that don't exist as their reference (you can search all you want but you never find the actual studies they quote).  1998 was a peak year and if you look at the numbers they reference every year after 98 except for 99 and 00 is substantiallly warmer than every year before 98 and 99 and 00 are warmer than all but a couple of years.  so, yes it's cooler than 98 but it's warmer than 97, 96, 95, 94, 93.............after i went halfway up the page i stopped bothering.  
the telegraph a liberal propaganda machine ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha you obvuiosly dont know uk media and politics.........
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If they increased energy bill for your home by a factor of 4.5 would you consider that cruel? If so why are you doing that to your bees?
GSF
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« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2014, 06:46:17 PM »

I found a dandelion blooming yesterday. I also found several shoots that were not far off from blooming. As most folks in this region we've had some bitter cold for weeks now. I guess the old equinox has the last say so. Tonight is going to be the first time in a while we haven't had to run our water.
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