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Author Topic: US Economic Collaspe?  (Read 4675 times)
kathyp
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« Reply #40 on: August 17, 2013, 10:33:28 AM »

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whereas I base my opinions on DATA.

your data is flawed.  check your source.   Wink
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
Brian D. Bray
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« Reply #41 on: August 19, 2013, 01:49:49 AM »

Mark Twain once said: "There are lies, Darn (sic) lies, and statistics," meaning the manipulation of data becomes the biggest lie of all.

My Maternal Grandfather (1873-1957). a Free-Methodist minister, used to say; "A man unprepared prays for a short life."  Meaning if you're not ready you ain't going to make it.

I live on a 1.5 acre farm on which I raise my own pigs, sheep, chickens, turkeys, ducks, pigeons, bees, grow an orchard of 18 fruit trees and have a greenhouse with a 100x100 foot garden plat.  I have a years supply of dried, canned, frozen, and fresh food on hand.  I have been involved in butchering my own meat since I was a pre-schooler during the Korean War.
I have 100 gallons of kerosene to light a dozen of those old fashioned hurricane lanterns, extra gas on hand, guns, ammo, and a years worth of hay in the barn.  We butchered 2 pigs and a lamb this spring and will butcher two more sheep this fall. 
Right now it is hard for me to get around, but I grew up on a farm back in the 1950's and can do some blacksmithing.

My food stores aren't just for me, they are to share with my neighbors.

When disasters strike we do not survive as individuals but as small communities, anyone who doesn't understand that will perish.
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Life is a school.  What have you learned?   Brian      The greatest danger to our society is apathy, vote in every election!
BlueBee
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« Reply #42 on: August 19, 2013, 02:46:19 AM »

"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics."

George Bernard Shaw

 Wink
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GSF
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« Reply #43 on: August 19, 2013, 05:37:25 AM »

Brian you're right about the community thing. I have quite a bit of rice put up just for that very point. Collective around this area is a lot of working talent. I want my neighbors to survive because I grew up with most of them, I like them, tons of skills amongst them, and if they start to starve, they most likely won't stand idly by if I haven't lost any weight.

As far as defense, one person can't defend their garden and work it to. We have a bunch of whistles that we are going to share. Man, you can hear a whistle a half mile or so away.
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"Life is hard, It's even harder when you're stupid."

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kathyp
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« Reply #44 on: August 19, 2013, 09:17:01 AM »

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"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics."

George Bernard Shaw

oh yeah, the guy who wanted all defective people killed because they were a drain on society.  guess he loved his statistics!
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
Modenacart
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« Reply #45 on: August 19, 2013, 10:24:37 AM »

IThe DATA says a lot of the things beeks are paranoid about are simply not TRUE.  This nonsense about hyperinflation is a perfect case in point.  Hyperinflation simple DOES NOT EXIST and yet beeks will argue with me for pages and pages on this subject.  It is really pretty silly as this is basic economic FACT. 

I saw 168 homes listed for under $40K in Omaha NE.  If a beek bought a house for $25K in the 1960s and houses are now $40K or less, that simply is not hyperinflation.  In fact that is a pretty poor return on capital!

I don't think you know what hyperinflation is. It is a very real concept, just ask the Germans. After the war, the price of goods were going up throughout the day. They would get paid multiple times a day so there wives could spend the money before it was worth far less.

Hyperinflation is not comparing the price if goods over time, it is over very short periods of time, for the Germans, less than one day even.
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hjon71
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« Reply #46 on: August 19, 2013, 11:53:42 AM »

A little music to break the tension. Enjoy.

 
"Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
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Michael Bush
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« Reply #47 on: August 19, 2013, 01:12:20 PM »

> I base my opinions on DATA.

I believe I showed the math.  But of course your data is better than anyone else's...

While I think the discussion of inflation is data, there are many things that are not very measurable or if you do measure it you will be severely misled.  Many people have committed a lot of horrible acts backed up by data.  I've seen many a business project fail BECAUSE of data.  Usually it comes down to thinking you can simplify a complex thing down to a number.  Then you measure success or failure by that number.  Then you learn to manipulate the number rather than improve the actual product or the process.  Life is not data.
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Michael Bush
My website:  bushfarms.com/bees.htm
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Modenacart
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« Reply #48 on: August 19, 2013, 07:38:34 PM »

Pesky math and data. I hate it.
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BlueBee
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« Reply #49 on: August 19, 2013, 11:38:15 PM »

OK, I guess since beeks think coffee is “hyper inflating” we’re doomed.  Head to the hills …. or your bunkers.  Don't forget the TP laugh
 
Isn’t there any other beeks out there with formal training in economics willing to speak up huh  It sure seems like the twilight zone around here. laugh  I’m not even going to waste my time trying to explain there is a relationship between interest rates and the overall real inflation rate.  One pretty much tells you what the other is doing.  I wonder how much interest beeks think they’re getting in their bank accounts?  HYPER interest on their money  lau
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OldMech
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« Reply #50 on: August 20, 2013, 01:06:22 AM »

Mark Twain once said: "There are lies, Darn (sic) lies, and statistics," meaning the manipulation of data becomes the biggest lie of all.

My Maternal Grandfather (1873-1957). a Free-Methodist minister, used to say; "A man unprepared prays for a short life."  Meaning if you're not ready you ain't going to make it.

I live on a 1.5 acre farm on which I raise my own pigs, sheep, chickens, turkeys, ducks, pigeons, bees, grow an orchard of 18 fruit trees and have a greenhouse with a 100x100 foot garden plat.  I have a years supply of dried, canned, frozen, and fresh food on hand.  I have been involved in butchering my own meat since I was a pre-schooler during the Korean War.
I have 100 gallons of kerosene to light a dozen of those old fashioned hurricane lanterns, extra gas on hand, guns, ammo, and a years worth of hay in the barn.  We butchered 2 pigs and a lamb this spring and will butcher two more sheep this fall. 
Right now it is hard for me to get around, but I grew up on a farm back in the 1950's and can do some blacksmithing.

My food stores aren't just for me, they are to share with my neighbors.

When disasters strike we do not survive as individuals but as small communities, anyone who doesn't understand that will perish.

    A man who understands.
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39 Hives and growing.  Havent found the end of the comfort zone yet.
Modenacart
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« Reply #51 on: August 20, 2013, 07:39:29 AM »

OK, I guess since beeks think coffee is “hyper inflating” we’re doomed.  Head to the hills …. or your bunkers.  Don't forget the TP laugh
 
Isn’t there any other beeks out there with formal training in economics willing to speak up huh  It sure seems like the twilight zone around here. laugh  I’m not even going to waste my time trying to explain there is a relationship between interest rates and the overall real inflation rate.  One pretty much tells you what the other is doing.  I wonder how much interest beeks think they’re getting in their bank accounts?  HYPER interest on their money  lau
I have had a couple of of college courses and I am no expert but I do know that hyperinflation is being miss used. It is not for periods of 10, 20 years. It is short periods of time.

And by the way, if you calculate inflation with what you need, ie food, and leave electronic out, it is very high.  Not hyper by any means, but much higher than the number the Feds use.
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GSF
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« Reply #52 on: August 20, 2013, 08:15:37 AM »

I probably should clarify what I mean when I say hyperinflation. I'm referring to what will happen if the US or global house of cards fall. Such as what happened in Germany. If it's a hard crash, then it will happen overnight, if it's a soft crash then not so fast. I believe we've always had inflation to some degree but not "hyper".

A little interesting article I read a few weeks back. Something about Germany wanting to get some of their gold returned to the home land. These "safe" countries seem to be having a problem getting it to them. Although the amount Germany wanted didn't amount to a hill of beans to what they alledgelly had in storage. These countries are stretching the return time out.
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"Life is hard, It's even harder when you're stupid."

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kathyp
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« Reply #53 on: August 20, 2013, 09:37:29 AM »

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-19/thai-baht-slumps-to-one-year-low-as-economy-enters-recession

thought this went well here.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
10framer
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« Reply #54 on: August 20, 2013, 11:07:18 AM »

blue, to deny that inflation is inevitable is as far out there as some of the prepping that went on before y2k.  in 2006 you could buy a couple of nice ribeyes at publix for around 10 dollars, now those same steak will cost you 20.  the big push for ethanol has already caused food prices to skyrocket over the last ten years.  you talk about the crash in 2008 but you don't mention the crash in the last year of clinton's administration.  that's when retirements were lost and really was the turning point in our economy over the last couple of decades.  i'm not blaming one party or the other because it's just not that simple.  it takes a village of idiots to trash the strongest economy in the world. but this started a long long time ago.  this is a snowball effect of bandages that have been placed on the economy for decades.   one of the most recent defining events was probably nafta.  at that point the middle class was officially sold down the river.  that was really a result of corrupt labor unions (which were created for the right reasons way back when) combined with the insane sense of entitlement that most americans seem to have making it impossible for manufacturers to compete in a global economy.  in the end we've done this to ourselves. 
as far as prepping goes, i bought a little over 40 acres in rural georgia about a year ago.  i'm building a barn with finished living space right now.  i have a well and will be adding a generator and maybe solar panels at some point.  the fact is that with all the guns in the world i'd never be able to stop the starving masses from raiding me and taking my stuff if the feces actually met the fan blades.  i don't really think we'll reach the point of riots but i do think that those of us that can grow our own food in the near future MIGHT be able to avoid bankruptcy.
inflation is inevitable.  i don't think we have a doomsday scenario on our hands just yet, though. 
someone asked what a moderate is earlier.  i don't think i'm really moderate but i'm centerist in my views (probably really libertarian). 
sorry if i got a bit off topic.
 
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kathyp
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« Reply #55 on: August 20, 2013, 11:18:16 AM »

Quote
Isn’t there any other beeks out there with formal training in economics willing to speak up

aren't those the guys who got us in this mess in the first place...those guys with "formal training"?
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
kathyp
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« Reply #56 on: August 20, 2013, 11:27:17 AM »

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you talk about the crash in 2008 but you don't mention the crash in the last year of clinton's administration.  that's when retirements were lost and really was the turning point in our economy over the last couple of decades.

bush inherited an recession followed hot on it's heals by 9/11.  don't remember him whining about what he was handed.... evil  that recovery is a good example of the difference between leadership and no leadership. 

there is more to this than some crazy Americans prepping.  people in other countries are doing the same.  my sister in England calls it nesting.  people are quietly storing food and preparing to hunker down.  over there, they have even less disposable income.  both food and fuel prices eat most of it.

if you read that article about Thailand, that's one formerly bright spot in Asia now in recession. it's not a house of cards coming down.  it's more like an angry birds level with shots being taken at all the supports.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
10framer
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« Reply #57 on: August 20, 2013, 11:35:07 AM »

Studies have shown that after three days without food a person becomes more primal than civil. Meaning, you got it I take it.

Old Mech - OK.. years of toilet paper may have been a bit silly, I will give you that..
(please don't let my wife hear you say that.. Lips Sealed)
We too have invested in some silver bars/rounds - can't do the gold thing. I can't make alcohol  to run stuff so to buy some time I bought a propane conversion kit for my generator. We hit yards sales and usually buy a propane bottle for $5 - be aware the older types can't be swapped for new bottles. They have to be refilled. We plan to get some used bikes with baskets. This lifestyle can be pricey for some folks. There is a you tube video, the guy goes by engineer(69?). He has a device he made to capture the gas release from burning wood. He uses that to power his truck. I believe he shows how to build it as well.

Bluebee, you have some good points. I am very open to differing opinions about my belief in this matter. I would love to see something that could change my mind. Data can and is manipulated. I don't see a lot of the TEOTWAWKI events you mentioned panning out. Like others, I want to be prepared and the most likely event I see is a collapse. However, all things considered if medical care and hygiene is taken out of the picture there will be a resurgence of simple diseases.

you do know that the housing market crashed and burned a few years ago, right?  house prices skyrocketed, banks made bad loans to and everybody was a builder.  the national market became flooded with (mostly poorly built) houses and all of the sudden those crazy interest only loans came due and all the want to be speculators and idiots that bought houses way out of their price range just walked away from them.  so, you really can't use the price of housing to judge inflation these days.  besides i can find a house for 15k right now if i look for it. that doesn't mean it;s in the neighborhood where houses were selling for 25k in the 60's.  too many variables in that argument.  
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10framer
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« Reply #58 on: August 20, 2013, 11:42:13 AM »

kathyp, i agree that bush got handed a big steaming pile.  i actually think he did the best he could with what he was given.  but, i think he tried to ride it out much like obama is doing.  the problem with the current administration is that they are busy working on agendas other than fixing our economy and playing one half of the country against the other to do it.  i don't think bush had that kind of agenda. 
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Michael Bush
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« Reply #59 on: August 20, 2013, 12:49:35 PM »

I find it intriguing that people think an economic collapse can't happen.  As if it has not happened before.  And rapidly.  I'm not saying that it will or won't, but I don't think we understand what happened in the past well enough to avoid it in the future.
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Michael Bush
My website:  bushfarms.com/bees.htm
My book:  ThePracticalBeekeeper.com
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"Everything works if you let it."--Rick Nielsen
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