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Author Topic: US Economic Collaspe?  (Read 3974 times)
GSF
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« on: August 13, 2013, 10:53:21 AM »

Knowing this post is somewhat vague & at the risk of sounding like a crazy I'm gonna post it anyway;

I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on a US Economic Collapse. Personally, I can't say one way or the other. I do lean toward it happening. I must point out I can't really blame Obama. From what I've read anyone who would be president at this time (or the next president) would probably have to do much of the same thing - printing & borrowing money. I think a survey was done in the Prepping Community and something like seventy to ninety percent were prepping for an Economic Collapse. Here's some of my thoughts/questions;

Unfunded liabilities. I can't quote the number but there's no way our country can fund all the programs coming our way in the near future - not to even mention obama care. The near future being very, very close - a decade maybe?

There's a course of events that happens prior to an economic collapse. Study the economic collasp es of countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Russia, Cuba, and others. (their stock markets were doing good just before their collaspes) There is a point of no return when it comes to debt. Some folks say we have passed it. When a country starts printing money to pay the interest on it's debt that is a sure sign that the end is near or at least hyperinflation. We're doing that now. To what extent I don't know.

Bank Holiday; That's when the banks shuts the doors to keep from having a run on the hard cash. We saw it small time with the Savings & Loans, and some financial institutions in the NE US after the hurricane knocked out electricity, and that island nation off of Greece. The problem is we don't use hard cash anymore we use electronic transfers of some type. It was explained like this. We have about 3 inches worth of hard cash and about 10 feet of electronic money. (800 billion cash vs 7 trillion electronic money)Now why worry about that? If terrorists were to shut down our electrical grid or an EMP we would have to go back to hard cash for a while. Other things could spur a bank run as well such as a domino effect when small countries becomes unable to pay their debts and start defaulting. Then the other countries that collects from them will suddenly become unable to pay their creditors, and so on. What about the US cities that are lining up to declare bankruptcy? If China wanted to become the dominant financial giant they could dump our bonds on the market and sell them for pennies on the dollar. Yes, they would loose a ton of money but compare that to the cost of war and the chance/reward to being the world's exchange currency. From what I read there's more people in the US recieving a govt paycheck or entitlements than there are working - how long will that last?

This article is dated Feb of 2012 but it should raise some eyebrows. There's several states in the US who are seeking their own currency - which is granted by the constitution (always ask why).

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/pf/states_currencies/index.htm

When a collapse/hyperinflation happens how will you know it? Two sure signs, keeping in mind your dollars is readjusting down to the value of printed paper(eventually back up). You'll see gas at the pump go from $3/$4 a gallon to $5, then to $8 or $9, then probably upwards to $15 or $25 a gallon. Groceries will take the same path. They say a loaf of bread will cost around $15. This will happen in one day. Your credit cards will probably be shut down first, then your debit cards. That's because folks will be rushing to the stores to stock up. The gov't entitlements will either be shut down, reduced, or at least so invaluable the money from them wouldn't buy hardly anything. This will last at least a couple of years.

Then there's the riots. Do you remember the movie "Hunger Games"? One of the mentors gave that girl some very practical advice; Don't run toward the supplies - run away. It'll be a blood bath.

A lot of folks compare this to the Carter years. At that time we didn't have the debt and liabilities we have now. Other things that raises my eyebrow is the effort by our gov't to confiscate our guns. Dept of Homeland Security buying all that ammo, also buying bullet proof vehicles with machine gun portals. I've been sent to several disaster areas you don't need that. You need helicopters & cargo trucks to haul supplies or people in/out. Those drones. They will have in production before long drones the size of a mosquito, pigeons, or what ever. The small ones will be able to land on you and take a blood sample for dna purposes. Why do the FEMA camps have the razor wire on the inside?

Do you know about the Defense Authorization Act (remake from the sixties)? If they declare marshal law and if someone from the gov't deems it necessary they can come to your house take your food, gas, vehicles, weapons, and place you in servitude(?) = slavery. They can even take your house. The kicker is they have made it very easy for an area to be placed under marshal law. Any local mayor can have it authorized. Go to youtube and search a video by the NRA concerning Gun Confiscation during hurricane Katrina. You'll be fit to be tied.

Russia & China have been buying tonnes of gold and other precious metals. Germany is wanting their gold brought back to their homeland. From what I've read the stock market will climb higher and higher, then spike and crash. The OPEC nations are moving away from requiring other countries to purchase oil using US Dollars. Google "Petro Dollars" that should explain it better than I could.

Is all this just a bunch of hype? I sure hope so. I can't imagine living in a third world setting. You should prepare yourself to weather some of the storm. If the dollar collapses eventually you'll lose water & electrical. They say in Chicago if you dial 911 it takes around an hour for someone to show up. In these other countries that has collapsed they say days. Every country/economy has their "restart" button pushed. Without a lot of ta doo here's a couple of thoughts to be prepared. Water - have some way to catch and purify your water. Have some extra food stored up. Have as much cash on hand in small bills as you can. Put the cash in a jar and bury it. Buy silver, do the same thing. Have some means of protection both handguns and long barrels. Know how to use them - very well. Have ammo. If you're able; buy seeds, fertilizer, poison, picks, hoes, axes, and the such. Then keep your mouth shut. 3 minutes without air, or 3 days without water, or 3 weeks without food can cause death.

Other than the economics, the South East US is due an earthquake. Google Madrid Earthquake. My sister lives in north Alabama. She was talking with a FEMA agent and when they found out where she lives they emphasized for her to get earthquake insurance. It seems FEMA is real concerned about an earthquake happening in our life time to near future up there.  Of course you can't predict an earthquake but the last time the Madrid earthquake hit it done damage from Washington DC down through the SE states. Think how many bridges would fall.

There's so many other little factors that makes me wonder. Pray about it and seek if you should prepare. We started long before the doomsday preppers show so it's not a fad we're going through. You'll need like minded friends as well. So how can you keep your mouth closed and recruit like minded friends? Watch their behavior/purchases.

Tell me what you think.
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2013, 01:32:00 PM »

you covered a lot of ground!  there are a lot of variables including the "what do they know that we don't".

the short answer for me is that collapse in some degree is inevitable.  the world is in debt.  the world is in chaos.  much of the world is a welfare state; that is, those who produce are outnumbered in most places by those who don't.

this might be easier to understand at the local level.  if you live in a neighborhood that is economically depressed what happens in that neighborhood?  stores and services close.  crime increases and leaks into surrounding areas.  disease increase.  charity work is not adequate to meet the needs of the people.  housing becomes a problem because people either can't afford it or can't pay the upkeep.  people become discouraged and apathetic.

right now, those people in our neighborhood have some options.  they can get out of there if they apply themselves, stay out of trouble, and are wise with their money. 

so what happens when our neighborhood becomes a city (detroit) or a state (CA) or the entire country?    what happens when 1st world countries with people used to affluence suddenly have 3rd world economies and degraded military forces?  what happens when 3rd world countries suddenly find themselves flush and facing those old 1st worlders who have stuff that they want?

i know this is massively oversimplified and i don't have answers.  i don't see this ending well. 
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2013, 01:09:29 AM »

The best advice I can give:

Make like a Boy Scout and be prepared.

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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2013, 02:24:40 AM »

Is all this just a bunch of hype?
Mostly.  It’s the nonsense Fox sensationalizes to draw an audience so they can make $$$ selling ad space.  Sadly it seems to attract beeks like a night light attracts moths.   

The dollar is not going to collapse, we are not going to get hyperinflation, and we’re not going to run out of water, electricity, or food.  We’ve got more Natural Gas than anybody, more than enough to power energy efficient LED bulbs for hundreds of years and water pumps to boot.  The Great Lakes is the largest mass of fresh water on the planet.  How much water to you drink?  The only real energy problem we have right now is we need oil for transportation.  With Obama’s new efficiency laws in place, we won’t need OPEC in the future.  Let them trade in cow pies if they want.

So we’ve got an abundance of water, food, energy, natural resources, human capital, and fiscal capital.  And yet Fox and Crew got y’all thinking like chicken little. laugh

Hyperinflation is a joke.  The dollar has been BARELY inflating in recent years.  The experts (not beeks), are more fearful of deflation than inflation, or hyperinflation.  Housing prices are down, corn is down about 50% from last year, Gold is WAY down.  The dollar is BARELY inflating.

I used to live in Memphis.  Nobody worries about the Madrid fault unless they have nothing else to do!  You simply buy an earthquake rider on your insurance and go on with life.  I believe the current historical evidence shows the New Madrid fault slips at a fairly predictable rate every 400 to 500 years.  Don’t worry about it, you’ll be LONG gone before the next one!  All the bridges around Memphis have chains to hold the decks in place, more or less  Wink
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2013, 06:40:44 AM »

"Hyperinflation is a joke."

What has 50 years brought?

The 2 lots I bought in 1963 for 100.00 each are now worth 25,000 each.

To have a tooth extracted in now 175 times the cost at that time.

You could build a nice home for an average of 1,000 dollars per room.  It is now closer to 40,000 per room.

A cup of coffee in the local cafe is now 30 times what it was then.

Just what would you call hyperinflation?

As for the OP, I think you are asking IF, when it is already here.

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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2013, 07:30:03 AM »

hey blueboy
Any chance of you moving back to Memphis?
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GSF
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2013, 07:57:02 AM »

Bluebee,

I really appreciate your "bee" advice but I think you need to have a more open mind about some things. Get Fox News, George Bush, and whoever/whatever out of your mind and just look at things. Again I really can't say one way or the other but I will be prepared if anything happens. Along the lines of what iddee said, I use to go to the doctor and pay cash on the spot for my treatments $20-$30. There's no way I want to try it now without insurance. There was a comparison of the value of the stock market now compared to after the crash in 08/09. It compared the value of the stock market to bananas, oil, and a couple more things. Back then after the crash it was worth (buying power) so much more. Even if Mitt Romney had won the election I really believe the course of our gov't wouldn't have changed much. There's a reason they don't "require" high school students to study economics.

I just don't think we're invincible.
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2013, 08:29:09 AM »

"Hyperinflation is a joke."

What has 50 years brought?

The 2 lots I bought in 1963 for 100.00 each are now worth 25,000 each.

To have a tooth extracted in now 175 times the cost at that time.

You could build a nice home for an average of 1,000 dollars per room.  It is now closer to 40,000 per room.

A cup of coffee in the local cafe is now 30 times what it was then.

Just what would you call hyperinflation?

As for the OP, I think you are asking IF, when it is already here.



iddee.....


Cemetery lots !!  evil




                BEE HAPPY Jim 134 Smiley
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2013, 08:35:20 AM »

150 Ft. frontage, 300 Ft. deep. Would bury a VERY big man.
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2013, 11:39:40 AM »

150 Ft. frontage, 300 Ft. deep. Would bury a VERY big man.

 shocked



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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2013, 12:11:11 PM »

When I was a kid back in the 60's a good cup of coffee was a nickel and it was bottomless.  I just paid $1.50 for some cafeteria coffee that was neither good, nor bottomless.  Let's see, that's 3000% inflation if my math is right (and it usually is).
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2013, 12:37:14 PM »

    I don't know how many of you were around in the 70s. I can tell you inflation was BAD! Americans in general were depressed. There seemed to be no hope. Gas from 40 cents to 2 dollars. Food skyrocketed. Tires, rubber off the charts. Buy a house, you would pay 23% interest, To say nothing as to the cost of the house. As M. Bush said, prior to the inflation, put a nickel or dime down you could sit in a cafe and drink coffee all day.
    Today is only different as to the degree. I remember Carter telling us, " Get used to it, the America we knew, no longer exist ".  ( I paraphrase )  
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2013, 12:54:16 PM »

i remember the 70s  grin

one difference is that we had some identifiable issues and incidents that led to the stuff that happened.  what is the same is the poor leadership and the failure to address those issues and incidents that are leading to our current state.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2013, 12:58:15 PM »

According to the international coffee organization, the retail price of coffee in the USA was $2.97/lbs in 1990, $3.43 in 1999, and $3.66 in 2009.  That averages out to an inflation rate of 1.2% per year.  I guess the other 2999% you speak of must have occurred during the Reagan years. lau

It’s too bad that people can’t even look up the definition of “hyperinflation”. We aren't even CLOSE.  Sorry beeks, you're barking up the wrong tree again. laugh
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2013, 01:07:33 PM »

    Some of us are able to admit who we are. I am a conservative. Bluebee, what is a moderate?
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2013, 01:20:02 PM »

some inflating is the sign of a healthy economy.  no inflation is the sign of a stagnant economy.  you can have a stagnant economy and have hyper-inflation if there are outside pressures that cause it. 

we currently have a stagnant economy and our inflation is in the worst possible places...like food and fuel.  if, when they calculated inflation, they calculated comparing apples to apples, our inflation numbers would be higher. 

not really the issue anyway.  right now we are on the edge and so is the rest of the world.  there might be ways to pull back, but no one seems interested in doing that.  it will only take one global incident to take us all over the edge.  Europe is our biggest trading partner, they are on the brink of depression.  Mexico is a mess, we import most of our oil from Mexico and Canada.  the middle east is a tinderbox and that impacts global oil prices.  China may be cooking their books and if they start to crash they have any number of nasty things they can do to us and others, including calling our debts. 
Australia has experimented with skipping the dollar and trading currency to currency. on of the things propping up the value of the dollar is that it is the international currency.  if that ends, the dollar has little right now to help it keep it's value.  that would cause your hyper-inflation over night.

watch the fed reserve.  they are trying desperately to delay the inevitable.  i don't think it's even a question of it happening anymore, only when...and then we will see if we can crash and come out the other side....or we'll find our way to that valley in CO  Wink

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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2013, 02:33:43 PM »

Blue, please explain this graph to this dumb old redneck. I just cannot figure it out.

Coffee Price Evolution 1990 - 2010
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2013, 04:11:12 PM »

Very well said Kathyp & others. My point is; I'm not trying to blame any one person or political party they all have a stake in what is going on. I'm just trying to get folks to at least prepare some. There are a lot of us around here who have formed a group that will come together if it all falls apart. We recruit but do it quietly. One of the requirement is that you must have a certain amount of food, weapons, and other self sustaining resources. We used to teach self preparedness type classes. Other than our group there's a lot of folks around here putting up food, seeds, meds, and such. If we're wrong the worst that can happen is you save on food in the future. If we're right then it may mean that we survive - until folks who didn't prepare start starving. That will be the next ugly.

If we collapse here's the way I see things. Once the population catches on: Riots, much, much bloodshed, stores will be emptied out, groups forming for the good or bad, more killings. How long before the stores restock? Things will return to a norm. When and how long? Who knows? The thugs/gangsters will be among the first to expire. Their mentality will do them in. The gov't handout folks will cease to exist as well. They will either become a productive citizen, be murdered, or starve. There is a term called "Normalicy Bias" - it has never happened in my life and therefore it will never happen. There's just too much out there that suggests I'm right or I may be right.

I was in the cockpit of an (overloaded?) military transport plane on headphones once. The pilot gave a briefing to his crew with a couple of scenarios of what may happen and how they would handle it. He told each what to say and how to respond. He concluded; "Heck if we were wrong we'll just laugh about it."

Some folks say there's a bear out there. Some say the bear won't bother you. Some folks say there's no bear. Shouldn't we be prepared whether there's a bear out there or not?
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2013, 04:53:53 PM »

 ""If we're right then it may mean that we survive - until folks who didn't prepare start starving""

 If we're right then it may mean that we survive - until folks who didn't prepare start stealing and killing.

I have food, ammo, water, ammo, shelter, ammo, and perimeter guard on the farm.
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2013, 05:37:29 PM »

The dollar is not going to collapse, we are not going to get hyperinflation, and we’re not going to run out of water, electricity, or food.  We’ve got more Natural Gas than anybody, more than enough to power energy efficient LED bulbs for hundreds of years and water pumps to boot.  The Great Lakes is the largest mass of fresh water on the planet.  How much water to you drink?  The only real energy problem we have right now is we need oil for transportation.  With Obama’s new efficiency laws in place, we won’t need OPEC in the future.  Let them trade in cow pies if they want.


   I have to disagree completely...

   The one plain and simple fact, is that you CANNOT print money to pay your debts, and thats what is happening even as we speak.
  Once that starts, the end is inevitable..   The US ((("WILL")))   Lose status as the worlds reserve currency. Many other nations have already begun to phase it out... look it up, its there for all to see and find.

   I do not watch Fox, i dont even watch TV if i can help it. I am not a democrat, I am not a republican... I actually PLANNED to vote for Obama, until i started looking him up and doing some research... it only took about a half hour and I waved him aside "KNOWING" He could NEVER be president of the United States.....  (Imagine my surprise) From the day he was elected, I started paying attention, and I do not like what I have been seeing...   I did like a few of his ideas, but those ideas I liked, were the ones he never followed through on, or even mentioned after he got elected...   I dont vote one way or the other because of a party loyalty.. I think thats pretty silly.. I also believe that there should be a third party... call it the AMERICAN party... so those of you who dont like to vote for the lesser of two evils, CAN vote for whats best for this country and its people...  So what are you? Are you a Democrat? A republican? Or do you believe we all live together in this country? That we should be Americans first?

    I do fear the Poo slide is coming and were all going to be on it..    Why yowl at people who want to be prepared? laugh at them if you wish, but when we all hit the bottom of that slide in a big sticky mess, those folks who were prepared are going to be the only ones who can help you and your family.  IF.. they are willing to risk their own to help yours...
    The few guns I have were inherited, some from great grandparents, some from grandparents. Before "they" take them I will have to empty them all first, including the black powder guns...
   Do I think they wont do it because I said that??
  Am I bragging or being a tuff guy?
  Not at all.
  Because I KNOW that they can, and they WILL take them when the time comes, but I really dont want to be alive to see us lose something my family has fought to preserve for so long. It is one of the very few things I feel is as valuable as my own life.  My life is not valuable to you, it is only valuable to ME, and those who know and care about me. But I do not value it higher than freedom.
  Big words?
  Someone else to laugh at?
 (Oh real grown up resorting to violence!!!!)
 When its all I have left..  Yes, that is exactly what I will resort to.

  I dont advocate breaking the law, I do not belong to an anti govt group.  I only DISLIKE what our govt is doing, the direction they are taking.. I HONESTLY feel that it is NOT in the best interest of ALL people in this country.
  My family were ALL in the military. Both grandfathers fought in WW2, Each of us served in the Army or Navy, I had, and HAVE, relatives in all branches of the servcice. My son came back from Afghanistan about a year ago, and is preparing to get shipped out again..   I KNOW I cant fight the govt, I KNOW I cant win...   The basic fact is, if the economy collapses, I will do the best I can for my family friends and Neighbors. But, if they come to take my guns.. Then it will mean the end of the America I served to protect and want to live in.

   I DO hope that economic collapse will not happen, but there are too many models to look at and compare for me to think anything else.  All it takes is a bit of searching through reliable sources, not left, or right wing. Just look at the facts..   What has happened to every other country that began printing money to pay their debts?  They lost the reserve currency status, and they hit rock bottom..  Cant happen? What country had the reserve currency before us?  What year did they lose it?  Look at what they did, and what happened as a result. Compare it to today.

   I guess, you can say anything you want, you can site examples of why this WONT happen.. and I will truly back you and hope with all my heart that you are absolutely correct!!!  If that is the case.. then i will have lost nothing by being as ready as I can be.. Perhaps I may even feel foolish... But.. I am OK with that, my wife works hard to make me feel foolish, I am used to that.

   If what you say, and currently laugh at or rail against does come to pass, don't come trying to steel food from my gardens, fields, greenhouse, or honey from my bees..   My wife can shoot better than I can, and my son has his sharpshooter ribbon.. Mine IS on my dress uniform (that no longer fits ) covered by plastic, but I have not forgotten.  

   Bury cash in small bills?   Why?  Paper money has to have something to back it, without that backing, it is only worth the paper it is printed on. You could have ten thousand dollars in your hand, but if the economy collapses, you cant even buy a carton of eggs with it. Our money is supposedly backed by Gold. So, in effect, you cant print billions with nothing behind it and expect other countries (anyone) to value it.
  
   I cant say I am sold on being a prepper..  I do not "THINK" things will get so bad that we have nothing, but I do think we are going to have problems. I just do not know to what extent.

 
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How is it that 900 HP isn't any more exciting than opening a hive for inspection?
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