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Author Topic: fingers on the sell button  (Read 2073 times)
kathyp
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« on: June 20, 2013, 04:12:25 PM »

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100831276

in spite of the fact that some of our leftist friends keep touting the stock market as proof of the policies of obama being god-like, some of us have been making the point that there is no real economic reason for the market to be up.  the market is up because there are people riding the pumping bubble and they hope the cash out at just the right moment.

not all bubbles are created equal, and the popping of this one will be particularly bad because there is no large segment of the market that is doing well independently....

everything depends on Bernanke managing the draw back well.  anyone have faith in that??
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2013, 09:11:53 PM »

Quantitative easing(Printing money not backed by anything) may be coming to a slow down. The market is jittering at the thought.
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BlueBee
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2013, 11:38:25 PM »

Heck, when QE ends, the banks will start making a fortune as they can push interest rates up again.  This should be great news for the banks (and bank stocks); not so great for the people.  The market tends to track the economy and unless there is a recession imminent, today’s drop was likely just a modest correction.  People are clearly still abandoning gold and if they have any sense at all will be abandoning whatever gov bonds they hold.  That leaves where to put money, folks?  You guessed it, the stock market.

Not time to pull the trigger yet, unless you’re sitting on big profits. 
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Better.to.Bee.than.not
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2013, 11:39:47 PM »

In 2001 the nasdaq was around 5000, today it is 3364ish. and that is AFTER a accumulative inflation increase of 31.6% since 2001. if the market was the 'same' value as back then, which was a high, no doubt about it, the nasdaq would have to be at about 6580...anyone who runs around yelling about the # itself 'being so high' is just ignorant. then again the # itself isn't what matter either. The DJIA is at 14758.32 today after a 352 point loss, remove the 31.6% accumulative inflation and you are at 10094.64, which the djia was at 10700's in 2001. We clearly have not kept up with inflation and thus the lefties have notta imo to run around whooping and hollering about. It is even worse if you go and look at where things were in 2007 when the dems first took majority. in 2007 (of which I should add the republicans made the budget for as the budget is made the year previously in feb, 2006 which they were still in majority.) the djia went up to close to 14,000. with the accumulative inflation of 12.3% since then, just the same value for the market would be 15722 roughly, so it is 1,000 points off even it's base rough value just from raw inflation outright. and that is now, after all the BS we as people have put up with in the last 6 years since the dems have taken majority even. still not even breaking even isn't something to brag about after 6 years of being in not only majority, but super majority...and frankly the only time it even started to get better was after republicans took majority back in the house in 2011, and we all know it. (and I will add since we Tea Party people have become more involved also.) Prior to THAT, it was steadily and continuously going downhill, more and more, since after the highs of after the republicans held majority, and the democrats took it.
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BlueBee
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2013, 11:51:28 PM »

The market has more the DOUBLED under Obama.  It’s kind of a weak argument to suggest that having 2.5 times more money now (than in 2009) is somehow not a REAL gain.  laugh

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2013/05/16/economically-could-obama-be-americas-best-president/
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kathyp
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2013, 12:02:45 AM »

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

you still show your ignorance of economics by insisting that an increasing stock market is an indicator of a healthy economy.  in this case, it's an indicator that there is no place else to invest, and the fact that it is so jittery is an indicator that investors know the up market has nothing to do with the economy. 

as for increased interest rates, they are good for anyone who has money saved, which includes a lot of senior.  it's not going to be good for our over all debt.  it's not going to stimulate purchasing.  it will perhaps help curb inflationary forces. 

they are playing a dangerous game.  with markets as interconnected as they are, one small miscalculation or disaster anywhere in the word and down we all go again.  we can't survive our debt if interest rates go up. we only make it now because we can print money and because rates are low.

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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2013, 02:55:49 AM »

Bluebee, it is clear you do not even know what 'the market' is, nor what 'value' is compared to volume. Here is a clue, you give me $5 but lower the price of everything to $3, then after I will give you $10 and raise the price of everything to $20 and see who has more value even though I only have $5 compared to your $10. anyone can easily check out the accumulative inflation I mentioned, and see it is true. the #'s do not lie, and a article from forbes means nothing, anyone can find one person to agree with whatever they wish to show for a article. A dollar amount 'doubling' if it's value does not, and it starts from a inferior position in the first place. This original posting isn't about 'obama'. any fool can take a down cycle and expect to have a upcycle afterwards. It isn't because of him that it happened, as was stated, if one looks at the trends when it happened was right after republicans took control of the house in 2011, really and thus prevented the democrats from doing even more harm, by merely getting in their way. until that point it was all downwards from when they had super majority and majority from 2007-2011.
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2013, 06:10:04 AM »

All I know is that last week I happened to tune in to Marketplace [on the only tv channel I can receive now thanks to Clinton's push to all digital] just in time to hear that 'The recession is over!'.    I couldn't believe that I heard correctly.   

Where we are, the recession is definitely not over.  Until the Consumer Price Index includes food, fuel and healthcare, those nitwits in Washington will never get a good picture of what things are like in rural areas in the flyover states.  Of course, the Sec Ag believes that 'rural America is increasingly less and less relevant' so I guess we'll be no great loss.   

This recovery is definitely a bubble from where I'm sitting.
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« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2013, 02:49:59 AM »

the definition of a 'recession' is "Period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer."

This is why there was NO recession under Bush....because there was a contraction only in the last quarter of him being in office, the first quarter of 2009 was under Obama. we can have a collapse of -500% growth in one quarter, and then a gain of .2% growth the next quarter, and not be in a recession...a monkey running the country would no doubt see good gains after a huge loss in a quarter, but all we have seen under obama are meager lousy skeletal gains, except when there were losses.... This is why he and the liberal democrats are such horrible leaders....economies run in cycles always...there will always be a rise and a fall, so having a gain after a loss is not anything note worthy. If one looks at the recovery after the problems before Reagen, it is easy to see how much stronger the gains were under a much better leader, a lot quicker. We are America...we are a very strong entity in the world and there was no doubt with anyone sane that we would not just collapse... There is debate if we can even collapse at all no matter what we do...... but we can bounce on the bottom of a chart for multiple years with horribly weak recovery, which is what we have done for the last 6 years of democrat majority, and after the huge drop when Obama became president in 2009. Recovery isn;t bouncing on the bottom of a chart for years, thats for sure.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/assets/images/pubs/extracredit/ec_1201_fred_2.jpg
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Moots
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« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2013, 08:14:06 AM »

The market has more the DOUBLED under Obama.  It’s kind of a weak argument to suggest that having 2.5 times more money now (than in 2009) is somehow not a REAL gain.  laugh


Blue,
WHICH REMINDS ME...About 2 1/2 weeks ago you PROMISED that you were going to help educate me by supplying a list of EXACTLY what Obama has done to cause and/or aid the rise in the market.

I was told to put my thinking cap on...unfortunately, I should have put my waiting cap on!  It's a pretty straight forward, easy and fair question...But every time we ask this question....nothing but crickets!  laugh

Patiently waiting....JUST ANSWER THE QUESTION!
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2013, 01:06:11 PM »

Look at history and then you start to realize that by using BlueBee's yard stick to measure Presidents, BlueBee thinks that GOP Presidents Herbert Hoover and Dwight Eisenhower are the two best Presidents ever.  That in Blue's book also makes FDR is the worst.  When the Roaring Twenties bubble burst on Black Tuesday, October the 29Th 1929 the DJIA was at an all time dizzying record high.  One of the problems with Black Tuesday was the height from which the Dow plunged.  Hoover never got credit for the high only the low, but such is politics.  

In fact the Wall Street Crash was so dramatic that some Wall Street traders took the big plunge out of New York skyscrapers in a desperate attempt to keep up with their investment portfolios.   grin  It required 26 years of some of the highest inflation in American history before the Dow returned to 1929 levels. To be exact the second year of the Eisenhower Administration in 1955.  So using Blue's own measure of greatness Hoover and Ike were the two best Presidents of the 20Th Century with the possible exception of President Ronald Reagan.  

Whether the President is a Democrat or a Republican is not as important as whether Congress is in the hands of foolish children or under the control of serous statesmen.  Unfortunately for most of the 20Th Century the Democrat Party has been the party of foolish children.  In both 1930 and 2006 when the Democrat Party seized control of Congress the good times they ended because the ship of state had become a ship of fools.          
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BlueBee
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2013, 12:00:36 PM »

Today’s headlines:  STOCKS BACK AT RECORD HIGHS.  http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/11/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN

LOL.  Once again our beek friends are completely wrong about the market and economics.  What a surprise.  laugh 

Maybe the best way to make money is to ask a group of beeks what they would do.  Then take your money and do the exact opposite.  lau
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Moots
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2013, 12:03:57 PM »

Today’s headlines:  STOCKS BACK AT RECORD HIGHS.  http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/11/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN

LOL.  Once again our beek friends are completely wrong about the market and economics.  What a surprise.  laugh 

Maybe the best way to make money is to ask a group of beeks what they would do.  Then take your money and do the exact opposite.  lau



Hey Blue,
This reminds me....How you coming on that list you promised me?  You know the one where you were going to offer specific details on EXACTLY what Obama has done to aid and/or cause the rise in the stock market.  grin
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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2013, 12:32:00 PM »

Today’s headlines:  STOCKS BACK AT RECORD HIGHS.  http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/11/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN

LOL.  Once again our beek friends are completely wrong about the market and economics.  What a surprise.  laugh 

Maybe the best way to make money is to ask a group of beeks what they would do.  Then take your money and do the exact opposite.  lau



No one was wrong at all.... about the market nor the economy. Did you even read the article? no, obviously just the headline. "Investors were spooked in May when Bernanke suggested the Fed could begin to scale back its $85 billion-per-month bond buying program this year. But top central bankers, including the chairman, have taken great pains to reassure investors that any tapering would depend on continued improvement in the economy. "..... or maybe you just do not actually know what it means...nor obviously know the difference between the # being higher and the value being higher. Although that being said it is gaining ground, but with THAT being said economic cycles are just that. cycles so they always do and will gain ground no one but a fool would say the country is never ever going to be considered prosperous again, that is just silly...the RATE of it gaining ground though is small. things plummeted in 2001 after 911 and the country screeched to a halt...then every year it regained, far more steadily in fact than it has been this year, and then after the democrats gained majority in 2007 it plummeted, and then plummeted even more and faster after Obama became president....then it hit rock bottom and stayed there for years, and it has only been since some of the policy and damge done has been stopped when the republicans gained majority in the house that it even started to recover. that was 2011. and now that Obama and the destructocrats have announced not implementing one of the major disasters of obamacare, people see things as not being as damaging...but all Obama did was sell out the people for the corporations.... He could of stopped the mandate for the people also...but all he is stopping them for is business. conveniently until after next years elections, so the destruction isn't 'felt' before the people can remove more democrats.
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kathyp
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2013, 08:08:54 PM »

Quote
"Investors were spooked in May when Bernanke suggested the Fed could begin to scale back its $85 billion-per-month bond buying program this year. But top central bankers, including the chairman, have taken great pains to reassure investors that any tapering would depend on continued improvement in the economy. "..

guess he came out and said he was going to keep pumping.  that means two things.  1. the economy is not strong and 2. the market is based on nothing.

glad that makes you happy bluebee. 
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2013, 06:50:23 PM »

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100831276

in spite of the fact that some of our leftist friends keep touting the stock market as proof of the policies of obama being god-like, some of us have been making the point that there is no real economic reason for the market to be up.  the market is up because there are people riding the pumping bubble and they hope the cash out at just the right moment.

not all bubbles are created equal, and the popping of this one will be particularly bad because there is no large segment of the market that is doing well independently....

everything depends on Bernanke managing the draw back well.  anyone have faith in that??


QE  a way of rich people making poor people poorer! Sad





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kathyp
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2013, 09:30:21 PM »

i don't know if it's a way of doing it, but that's certainly a result.  just devaluing the dollar has a disproportionate effect on those with less....although not necessarily the poor.  most of the poor are getting paid not to produce anyway.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2013, 02:41:24 AM »

Once again, listen to what the beeks say and then DO the exact opposite

The dollar is not weakening, it’s strengthening.  Have you bought any Gold lately?

I kind of hate to dust off the Econ 101 text, but its basic economic knowledge that when interest rates increase, ones currency becomes STRONGER.  That is the environment we’re entering. 

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2013/06/29/Bubbles_Dont_Deflate_they_Burst_Watch_for_US_Dollar_Strength.html

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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2013, 11:48:46 AM »

    I have not been on this post cause I don't know nuttin bout money. I couldn't even begin to understand Blue bee's eco 101.

    My life experience tells me, if BB is correct, you all should be selling your gold !

    So BB, are you telling everyone to sell their gold?
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kathyp
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2013, 12:52:41 PM »

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The dollar is not weakening, it’s strengthening.

the dollar has been a little stronger against some others.  why?  because everyone is having economic trouble.  that's another indicator that we are in trouble.  the EU is a disaster right now and they are our strongest trading partner.  the two brightish spots are Germany and England, but Germany is on the hook for some of the EU debt issues and the Brits just went into recession again.

many are looking at China and seeing a bubble and are concerned that they are going to have at least a steep correction.  Russia might be the one place doing better than many realize because they have become a major supplier of NG to Europe and are selling arms again.

gold was due to correct.  anyone with any sense stopped buying gold at least a year ago, so that's not a very good indicator of anything.

so blue...what are you hanging your hat on?  getting out of the market in time?
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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