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Author Topic: Investment Advice  (Read 9255 times)
iddee
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« Reply #140 on: May 08, 2013, 03:40:51 PM »

0% unemployment?

I would be happy with what it was when he came around.

Gas back at 50 cents/gallon?

I would love to see it at the price it was when he came, with BB's 2% inflation added. Is that reasonable?

Zero national debt?

No, just where he found it.

Now, is that asking too much?
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"Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me . . . Anything can happen, child. Anything can be"

*Shel Silverstein*
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« Reply #141 on: May 08, 2013, 04:02:18 PM »

it's not just CA, if you look that the places in this country that are the biggest mess, liberals have been in charge either in the legislature, or leadership, or both.  maybe there's an exception, but i can't think of one off the top of my head.

what's a shame in CA is that with the resources and climate, they should be booming.  it is regulation, taxes,  and social welfare that killed  the state.  anyone who could, left.  any business that could, left.  what stayed is the welfare class, the lower income class, and those like my parents who are retired and to old to want to relocate.  there are a few others, like my brother, who years ago build his dream home on a nice piece of property, watched the market collapse and now can't move.  if he can even come close to getting enough money out of his place to pay off the mortgage, i expect he'll leave also.

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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
Fox Creek
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« Reply #142 on: May 08, 2013, 04:22:59 PM »

   

    Its not just the financial ruin here in Ca. The liberals have taken away our quality of life. I can't buy the oil stain I want to protect my wood decks. (have you ever tried the water base stains?) I can't buy the light bulbs I want. (have you used the bulbs they allow?) ...I'm retired law enforcement and now in the "Executive Protection" (body guard) line of work. I cant purchase the firearms I want. If I want to go out of state to purchase a firearm, as soon as I identify myself as being from Ca., I'm denied access to what I want and need. I'm so sick and tired of liberals dictating my life and getting away with it. Oh yes, Obama is changing America and I admit to seeing communist in my soup.
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BlueBee
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« Reply #143 on: May 08, 2013, 04:40:09 PM »

Ever been to LA Fox Creek?  You can actually SEE through the air now and breath it.  What a novel concept.  That is why fuel is more costly in CA.  You have higher standards for vehicle emissions and fuel than the rest of the country.  Your climate makes your air more susceptible to stagnation and if you didn’t have those God awful “regulations” you might have to import Air to breath from Michigan.  How much should we charge for air?

You probably also have higher state taxes on gasoline, but that is a separate matter.

Seems people have forgotten I am a MODERATE, not a leftist liberal  Smiley
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kathyp
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« Reply #144 on: May 08, 2013, 04:45:27 PM »

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Your climate makes your air more susceptible to stagnation

not so.  LA's location and population make it more susceptible to stagnation.  most of the rest of the state is either getting sea breeze or east wind off the mountains. 

i don't have a problem with addressing a problem.  if LA needs different standards, fine.  then let LA enact those standards and pay for them.  why drag the entire state into it?  if the people living in LA don't like the cost of the standards, let them move.  or, let them live in the stagnation. 

most of the regulations are for the sake of regulation.  they don't accomplish anything except to drive up cost and slow down progress. 

it's not an all or nothing proposition.  it is a common sense issue.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #145 on: May 08, 2013, 04:50:21 PM »

I will concede you are correct KathyP.  The problem is specific to LA.  I would also agree that CARB went overboard making the same rules apply to the rest of the State.  I even agree that if people living in LA want fresh air, they should have to pay a fuel/vehicle premium and not make the rest of the state subsidize them.
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BlueBee
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« Reply #146 on: May 08, 2013, 05:20:03 PM »

Gas back at 50 cents/gallon?

I would love to see it at the price it was when he came, with BB's 2% inflation added. Is that reasonable?

Invest in some land with mineral rights over the marcellus shale and you won’t be complaining about the price of oil and gas anymore.  Going rate just to sign a lease is over $5K /acre.  If they actually drill you get royalties’ which make the lease money look like peanuts.  Land owners are retiring left and right from all the cash.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcellus_Formation

This illusion that somehow the price of gasoline is going to go back down to 50 cents if we “drill drill drill” is simply false.  AMERICANS are making way too much $$$$ off gas and oil to ever let the price drop back to those levels.  It will never happen.  Take propane for example, a completely domestic sourced fuel, yet the price of the stuff is sky high.  Much higher price per Btu than even oil.

Even if we could drill on every city block and beach, the greed of Americans would never let the price drop; we see this with propane even now.  When prices drop, the oil companies simple cut back on the number of wells to drive the price back up to where they want it.  The only way to force prices lowers is to dramatically cut demand.  We saw that last winter with Natural gas.   
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kingbee
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« Reply #147 on: May 08, 2013, 05:23:55 PM »

...
LA's location and population make it more susceptible to stagnation....


I must disagree on the population aspect of the L. A. smog.  In 1834-35 or 36 when Los Angeles, California was a thriving metropolis of almost a 1,000 people, a young Bostonian seaman named William Henry Dana Jr. wrote about LA as well as the rest of coastal California and Dana described the smoke, smog, and dirty air that L. A. is still famous for.  Next year it will be going on 180 years since Dana first penned his description of Los Angeles' smog as well as his description of the aftermath of a California brush fire.

Read about it yourself at this link.
http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/4277/pg4277.html


  
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iddee
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« Reply #148 on: May 08, 2013, 06:10:13 PM »

 
Attention, folks, Bluebee is living proof, a moderate is even further left than a liberal, and we were thinking the other way around for years.
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"Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me . . . Anything can happen, child. Anything can be"

*Shel Silverstein*
kathyp
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« Reply #149 on: May 08, 2013, 07:22:43 PM »

Quote
I must disagree on the population aspect of the L. A. smog.

he didn't really have a way to measure it though.  he just knew it was dirty air compared to the rest of the state.  sometimes it's dust, sometimes from forest fires, often from the activities of man.  reno has the same problem sometimes. 
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
kingbee
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« Reply #150 on: May 08, 2013, 09:41:20 PM »

...
Invest in some land with mineral rights over the marcellus shale and you won’t be complaining about the price of oil and gas anymore.  Going rate just to sign a lease is over $5K /acre....

Even if we could drill on every city block and beach, the greed of Americans would never let the price drop...

We saw that last winter with Natural gas.   


What you saw last winter was the use of coal nose dive because of the President's burning desire to spread your 401k around the third world like butter cream icing.  This reduced use of coal resulted in the cost of NG rising as NG replaced coal in the production of electric power.

If your fantasy was real, then why did the price of Texas sweet crude fall to 10¢ per barrel in the early 1930s forcing the Texas Governor to seize the oil fields to stop production and thus keep the State of Texas from entering bankruptcy because of a busted oil bubble leading to falling tax revenues.  As long as there is a willing buyer, in my considerable experience you will find someone who is eager to sell.

Then all of you should remember that presidents from FDR, HST, DDI, JFK, LBJ, to RMN kept old oil (already found and drilled domestic oil) at an artificially high price to encourage the use of Middle East oil.  This was the way back then that Uncle Sugar conserved oil.  Our oil that is.  No one in the Government nor any of the Seven Sister oil companies gave an oil stained rats' pottie  about how much oil the Mexicans, Venezuelans, Persians, or Arabs had left in the ground. Anyway the cheaper Arab oil got the higher the profit (or is that Prophet) grin margin for the Seven Sisters and their tanker fleets.  Through out the late 40s the 50s the 60s and into the early 70s Saudi and South American oil sold for less and less after shipping and deflation was factored out.  King Saud's troop of dancing girls were getting absolutely long in the tooth, something had to be done.  Something was done.  In 1959 the oil exporting countries founded OPEC.  Buy the time OPEC got into the driver seat 14 years later, Uncle Sam had managed to wean the American public away from expensive American oil and had us hooked instead on ever more expensive foreign oil.  

Before we were in effect beggaring the Saudi Arabians, Venezuelans, and the Evil Empire of the Caucasians, a.k.a. Iranians.  
    
By 1973 they were beggaring you and me.  At any rate oil prices had lost any and all connection to reality that oil prices has ever enjoyed.
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Moots
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« Reply #151 on: May 10, 2013, 11:56:17 AM »

Along the lines of this discussion, stumbled across an email that someone sent me in early March.

I know it will be impossible for some here to comprehend these "FACTS", but I did find them quite interesting and wanted to share.

The Last Time The Dow Was Here...
 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/05/2013


"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables),namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else."

•   Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14,164.5; Now 14,164.5
•   Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
•   GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
•   Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
•   Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
•   Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
•   US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
•   US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
•   Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
•   US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
•   Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
•   Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
•   S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
•   VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
•   10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
•   EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
•   Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
•   NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
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luvin honey
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« Reply #152 on: May 10, 2013, 01:19:47 PM »

Very interesting. Thanks.

I do find it interesting that household debt is down. Is it as simple as the fact that our economy DEPENDS on people outspending themselves? That what's best for personal household budgets is hurting our economy?
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kathyp
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« Reply #153 on: May 10, 2013, 01:45:35 PM »

Quote
Is it as simple as the fact that our economy DEPENDS on people outspending themselves?

sort if, but it goes with consumer confidence.  if i am doing well, or feeling that things are going well, i might replace my appliances and pay for them on time.  i might buy the 50,000 dollar car and not the 25,000 dollar car.  we don't want people buying stuff they can't pay for or you end up with stuff like the housing market trashed.  we can gauge how people are feeling/doing by how much risk they are willing to take to get stuff.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
Moots
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« Reply #154 on: May 10, 2013, 02:30:53 PM »

Very interesting. Thanks.

I do find it interesting that household debt is down. Is it as simple as the fact that our economy DEPENDS on people outspending themselves? That what's best for personal household budgets is hurting our economy?

luvin honey,
What I find interesting is that of the 17 points made, you automatically gravitate to and only mention the single point that can possibly be considered a positive...No comment on the other 16, Interesting.    grin
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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
                                                                                                                   - Ronald Reagan
luvin honey
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« Reply #155 on: May 10, 2013, 02:52:13 PM »

Very interesting. Thanks.

I do find it interesting that household debt is down. Is it as simple as the fact that our economy DEPENDS on people outspending themselves? That what's best for personal household budgets is hurting our economy?

luvin honey,
What I find interesting is that of the 17 points made, you automatically gravitate to and only mention the single point that can possibly be considered a positive...No comment on the other 16, Interesting.    grin
One thing I don't see listed is when the DOW was there last. How many years ago are we talking about here? I don't think anyone doubts that the economy has been suffering. I don't even claim it is fully on the way to recovery, just that there may be some positive indicators out there.
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The pedigree of honey
Does not concern the bee;
A clover, any time, to him
Is aristocracy.
---Emily Dickinson
kathyp
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« Reply #156 on: May 10, 2013, 03:07:10 PM »

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/sunday-review/the-depression-if-only-things-were-that-good.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://reason.com/archives/2013/01/27/world-war-ii-spending-did-not-end-the-gr

a couple of interesting articles.  the first is old, but i think still applies.  it's an explanation of some of what was going on during the great depression and what is different now. 
the second is another about how government spending extended the depression.  government spending now, is actually worse.  we have less positive underpinning in the economy, so government draining the private sector now is even more damaging.  we also have the added drag of excessive regulation.  something the job creators of the 30's didn't have to cope with.

if you really get into the  numbers, we are in worse shape for the long run than during the 30's.  our government is making everyone feel better by shoveling money out the door, but with no recovery, they can't continue.  they know that. 

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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
Moots
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« Reply #157 on: May 10, 2013, 03:07:58 PM »

One thing I don't see listed is when the DOW was there last. How many years ago are we talking about here? I don't think anyone doubts that the economy has been suffering. I don't even claim it is fully on the way to recovery, just that there may be some positive indicators out there.

2007
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"We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."
                                                                                                                   - Ronald Reagan
kingbee
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« Reply #158 on: May 12, 2013, 09:33:34 PM »

With all the bad news in the economy I find it chilling if not down right cold that liberals could home in on a 3/4 of a trillion dollar drop in household debt and think that it is the best thing since sliced bread.  This drop in house hold debt represents millions of home forecloses as well as the dashed dreams of American men and women.

I thought that the left was a kinder gentler sort of person than that.  butt kick  But evidently not.
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Sunnyboy2
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« Reply #159 on: May 13, 2013, 04:40:59 PM »

The economy is affected by household spending.  Short term household debt used to purchase goods helps the economy.  I suggest that the identified household debt decrease is  function of 1) lower household income, 2) tighter lending practices, and 3)massive foreclosures, not sudden desire to save more and spend less.  A function of loss of ability to barrow and spend rather than loss of desire.

May i also suggest that in the late 1990's and 2000's the low, easy mortgage debt gave a boost to the economy in the Clinton/Bush years, BUT caused over inflated housing prices, then the housing crash, then the recession as the longer term result. 

Debt is seldom the better solution, but it is to often the simple and (short term) painless solution.  This is especially true when debt is spent by one group of people and repaid by another group of people. 
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