Thanks Lone, for your advice.
Since I posted, I added a super. It has been too cold and windy to do much else. Now the bees are not clustering under the lid, they are hanging around on the new foundation but do not appear to be drawing it yet.
Yesterday was sunny and still, I had a good look into the bottom box and the top.
This is what I noticed :
* top box appears to have better brood pattern, (newer comb and queen working more up there perhaps?)
* bottom box appears to have patchy brood, but may be due to recent hatching?
* top box had three queen cells with larva in them, two on one frame and one on another. Bit hard to see, but the bottom of the cup was glistening white, and nurse bees were sticking their heads in often
* did not spot the queen
I figure I have at least 7 days before the queens emerge, so moving the queen cup frames to a nuc or new hive sounds like the best plan, I am confident the hive is strong enough. I do want to increase our hives this season :-)
I agree, there would probably be more queen cells if they were swarm cells.
With the smoke, this hive definately needs a bit of smoke when doing a thorough inspection. But they are pretty placid.
My newest hive however is extremely calm and a delight to work, without any smoke at all. This is a small swam colony I captured 4 weeks ago. Since the bees are only occupying 6 frames so far, I was able to spot the queen easily. The queen has so far laid out 3 full frames of brood and is working on the fourth. I will be keeping a close eye on this hive as it builds up, I am sure to learn a lot watching it grow.
Here is a photo of the queen of this new colony.