Sandy

[FRAMEshift]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george-lakoff/sandy-climate-change_b_2042871.html

The effects of warming on the climate system are coming home to roost.  With Sandy, MMGW has become deadly and it's clear what the future holds.  As I watched the reports of a hurricane merging with a cold front and an Arctic high pressure system to form a super storm, I felt like I was watching the film Day After Tomorrow .... but it was no longer fantasy.

[iddee]

Nah, the wicked witch of the east caused it, just like Marie Laveau brought in Katrina.

I'm sure there are many other fantasies floating around, too, if we look hard enough.

[kingbee]

Like all floods, if you didn't build your house in a flood zone you would not be flooded out.  I almost got into a fight with a Texan in I think 1993 over a flood issue in the longstar state.  

I was in a diner watching a news broadcast about the Texas flood.  The guy being interviewed said the river hadn't been this high in 24 years.  That means that 24 years ago the river was this high or higher. When someone asked me if I thought it was right for the government to pay out Disaster Relief time and time again to the same communities.  I answered NO.  A fellow sitting behind me got up and tapped me on the shoulder.  "You're a fine one to talk," he told me.  Sitting here in the Tennessee Valley enjoying all the flood controll the Government has given you.  Never one at a loss for wise words I asked him if the Federal Government made him the same deal it gave the people in the Tennessee Vally if he would be happy.  "I sure will," he answered, "My home back in Texas is under 24 feet of water."

I told him that as soon as the water went down I wanted him to get everything he could save out of his drowned home and get his you know what off the land.  "What for", he asked?  Because the Federal Government is going to come in and bull doze your house down, build a dam and flood you out permanently.  His whole manner changed.  "I see what you mean" he said.

This is not the first Super or Perfect Storm to hit the North East.  And it won't be the last.  If folks didn't insist on living in a flood plain they would not be flooded.  Get use to it or get out of the way.  Hurricanes are the only SUSTAINABLE thing in nature.  If you got one.... you'll get another.

The truth is that no one even knew that Hurricanes were circular storms until the 1780s when one hit New England and a courier for General George Washington's Colonial Army rode through the damaged area and noticed that the trees on the East side of the storm's path fell one way and the those on the West side of the storm fell in another direction.  

Here are a few of the past New England Hurricanes:  Notice most of the worst occured long before MMGW was even a gleem in the eye of 'al' Al Gore.

For brevity I did not include any hurricanes for the 19th Century or 21st Century

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes



August 4, 1609
August 25, 1635- The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 struck Narragansett Bay as a possible category 4 or 5 hurricane. It killed 46+ people.
August 23, 1683- A tropical cyclone hit Connecticut and caused tremendous flooding.
October 29, 1693- Another tropical cyclone struck New England and caused flooding so great that new permanent inlets were created.

October 18, 1703
February 23, 1723
October 8, 1747
September 8, 1769
September 1775
August 13, 1778
November 1, 1778
A two-peat in one year
October 8–9, 1782
October 18–19, 1782
Only 4 years later another two-peat in the same month this time no less
September 24–25, 1785
August 19, 1788  


1904 August - Category 1/extratropical
1916 July - Category 1 -
1924 August - Category 2/3
1927 November 3-4
1934 September — New Haven Conn.
1936 September - Category 1
1938 September - New England Hurricane of 1938 - Strong Category 3. killed over 600 people and is considered to be the worst hurricane to strike New England in modern times.
1944 September- 15 - Great Atlantic Hurricane - Category 3 in southern New England. Eye over Conn. /
1950 September - Hurricane Dog - Major offshore hurricane — largest in size of all Atlantic storms, Very large, intense storm.
1953 September - Hurricane Carol  (The first) Category 1
1954 August - Hurricane Carol - (The Second) Category 3
1954 September - Hurricane Edna - a second Category 3 hurricane in only two weeks.
1959 July — Hurricane Cindy scrapes New England.
1960 September 12–13 - Hurricane Donna - Category 2/3 with peak gust of 140 mph at Blue Hill, Massachusetts,
1961 September - Hurricane Esther - Category 1 hurricane
1962 October - Hurricane Daisy - offshore- hurricane
1963 October - Hurricane Ginny -
1971 - Doria -
1972 - Carrie - as transitioning to extratropical storm
1976 August - Hurricane Belle
1985 September - Hurricane Gloria- Strong Category 1 -
1991 August - Hurricane Bob - Category 2. Winds gusted to Category 3 strength in southeastern Massachusetts. One of the smallest in area and yet most intense hurricanes to hit southern New England since 1938
1991 October - Hurricane Grace/Henri - offshore — Wind gusts to 77 mph (124 km/h) over Cape Cod as far west as Jamestown, Rhode Island.
Yes another two-peat.
1992-August 28 The remnants of Hurricane Andrew
1992-September 26 Remnants of Tropical Storm Danielle
1996- July — former Hurricane Bertha -
1996 September - Hurricane Edouard - Category 1
October 8, 1996 – The remnants of Tropical Storm Josephine  
July 26, 1997 – Tropical Storm Danny
1999 September 17–18 Hurricane Floyd –  

Looks like that Global Warming thing has been going on in New England for a long long time.

[kathyp]

Looks like that Global Warming thing has been going on in New England for a long long time.

NO!!  you have it wrong.  history started 50 years ago!!  heretic...i renounce you!!!   

[BlueBee]

Frameshift, not sure this crowd listens to the huffingtonpost, or any real news for that matter  Something is only true when Fox “News” says it is  

I’m still skeptical, but the weather has been so extreme in Michigan this whole year, I guess it does give me pause.  We’ve had heat waves that are beyond anything we’ve ever had in modern times.  Unlike some beeks, I do keep an open mind  

[FRAMEshift]

  We’ve had heat waves that are beyond anything we’ve ever had in modern times.  Unlike some beeks, I do keep an open mind 

Lakoff is making the point that the "causal" relationship between MMGW and recent events is a systemic one.  As the entire system heats up, the probability of these weird events is much higher.  The heat and drought in Texas last year, Nebraska this year... and events like this hurricane/superstorm can be traced to systemic effects.  For example, the storm strengthened as it passed over the Gulf Stream, where waters were much warmer than normal.  And the hurricane was pulled west into the coast rather than moving eastward and out to sea as most hurricanes in the Atlantic do this time of year.  That was caused by a blocking pattern in the jet stream.  Such deep waves (and slower jet stream velocity) have been linked to the fact that more Arctic sea ice is melting in summer.  It's not a simple system and the cause and effect is not direct.  But to the people who study climate in detail, the people who really understand it best, the connections are clear.

[kathyp]

But to the people who study climate in detail, the people who really understand it best, the connections are clear.

to some. others say no.

so we had a year of weather.  you want to make a thing of that, and ignore a history of drought, storms, etc.  i do believe you get your news from the huff!   

i just wait for Antarctica to be ice free again so that we can spread out onto and new (old) continent.  wonder what archeological mysteries we will uncover when we can live there again?? 

[kingbee]

... not sure this crowd listens to the huffingtonpost... We’ve had heat waves that are beyond anything we’ve ever had in modern times.  Unlike some beeks, I do keep an open mind  

I also try to keep an open mind, and I do like to read the Huffington Post, I need the laughs.  BTW, Last Winter was cooler than average.  Yes, I know most of the lower 48 had above average temperatures.  That I freely admit. 

People are trying to make hay out of Man Made Global Warming by renaming Man Made Global Warming, Man Made Global Climate Change.  While last Winter, Spring, and Summer was wilting the lower 48, it was chilling the rest of the Northern Hemisphere with record cold.   Al Gore will simply kick the burden of proof further down the road and rename his nightmare, "Man Made Central Minnesota and Perhaps Parts of North Western Wisconsin Extra Climatic Data Averaging Mistake," or some other crap.  The Climate hasn't changed, the only thing to change is the proof that some demand to see before they will admit that the WEATHER is still doing what the WEATHER has always done, CHANGE, then CHANGE again, and finally CHANGE somemore before returning to the median.

That's what I like about you BB.  You are one of the few Lefties I have ever corresponded with that uses his head, most are just in over theirs'.       

[iddee]

Yes, I read the huff. I've always liked jokes. Even the sick ones.

I guess MMGW caused the midwest dust storms of the '30's, too. WOW! It is even retroactive.

[kingbee]

...
I guess MMGW caused the midwest dust storms of the '30's, too. WOW! It is even retroactive.

If it would help him pick your pants pocket, Al Gore would claim that Man Made Global Warming (a.k.a. Climate Change) is interplanetary.  I mean look, what happened to the water on Mars?  It had to go somewhere, right?  That means (To Gore) that we sinful people here on Earth destroyed the climate as well as the advanced beautiful civilization on the planet Mars when we Earthlings discovered that if we rubbed two sticks together long enough, we could make fire.  

I can hear it now. (Assuming the cadence and manner of a Southern revivalist preacher to deep in his cups) "You carbon stained, greedy, uncaring, fire worshiping, selfish, right wing reactionary Earthlings, REPENT!!!  IN THE NAME OF ALL THAT'S GREEN and HOLY, REPENT I COMMAND YOU!!!  Ya'll done boiled poor old Mars' water plum away like it was left a-standing in an unattended tea kettle on a hot stove ...."
  
Global Warming IS more pernicious than the Military Industrial Complex that President Eisenhower warned us about in 1961. Man Made Global Climate Change/Warming is designed not only to replace Juedao-Christian values but MMGW/CC is also designed to enrich and empower an elite cadre of high priest and priestest (like Al Gore) whose life's goal and dream is to rule over the Earth and the sinful Earthlings living here for the common good of the entire Universe.

[kingbee]

... i just wait for Antarctica to be ice free again so that we can spread out onto and new (old) continent...  

I am afraid that it ain't happening, at least not while there are flesh and blood humans on this planet.  The Antarctic ice sheet is growing in both extent as well as in thickness.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/forget-the-melting-arctic-the-sea-ice-in-antarctica-is-growing-skeptics-say-15032

                                 "Forget the Melting Arctic, Sea Ice in Antarctica is Growing!
                                   Published: September 30th, 2012"
Less you read the link and think that I am wrong, remember that the Antarctic Continent is a desert, one of the driest places on Earth for NEW rain or snow fall, and expanding sea ice cools, condenses and wrings out atmospheric moisture before it has a chance to fall as new snow over land.  Besides, It's MAN MADE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE/WARMING we are speaking of, not short term local rainfall variation.

[kingbee]

oops

[BlueBee]

i just wait for Antarctica to be ice free again so that we can spread out onto and new (old) continent.  wonder what archeological mysteries we will uncover when we can live there again??  

Maybe an old civilization of bee keepers whom refused to listen to facts?  

[kathyp]

Maybe an old civilization of bee keepers whom refused to listen to facts?

what facts?  the ones that warn that climates change?  that's one that i will agree with.  they do indeed change, and there are cycles to the climate changes also. 

[buzzbee]

Beyond what we've seen in modern times.....
Even 300 years in the scope of time is a mere grain of sand in an hourglass. With man being present or not the climate will be cyclical in nature.Hurricanes are natures way of redistributing heat and some of the heat energy convected to the upper reaches of the atmosphere does radiate out to space never to be heating the planet again.
And you really are not portraying Huffington as objective? 

[BlueBee]

You are right buzzbee, change is normal.  I’m still a little skeptical of what is warming the climate, but something is.  This is especially noticeable at the northern latitudes.  We had spells of much higher than ever imagined weather this year in Michigan; I’m keeping an open mind that it could be manmade.  You make a good point about hurricanes dissipating heat too.  The massive size of the cloud cover with this one would also reflect more of the Suns incoming rays and have a net negative effect on temperatures.  Luckily there is some negative feedback loops in the climate control system.

[kingbee]

...
The heat and drought in Texas ...  and events like this hurricane/superstorm can be traced to systemic effects...

I would say that a majority of the scientist supposedly in the tank for MMGW are not even Climatologist.  A lot of them are in fields that have NOTHING to do with ANY type of Earth Science study.  Many climatologist who DOUBT MMGW have also told about finding their names on the list of scientist that have supposedly ENDORSED MMGW and ultimately having to take legal action to get their names REMOVED from the list of scientist endorsing MMGW.

Yep, the effects of MMGW were so strong that it knocked the Sun and the Moon out of their normal orbits and realigned both the Sun's and the Moon's gravitational fields in relation to the Earth to exacerbate the effects of Hurricane Sandy by coronating  Hurricane Sandy's winds and arrival time with high tide resulting in increased coastal flooding.  OMG we're doomed!!!  

[Geoff]

Beyond what we've seen in modern times.....
Even 300 years in the scope of time is a mere grain of sand in an hourglass. With man being present or not the climate will be cyclical in nature.Hurricanes are natures way of redistributing heat and some of the heat energy convected to the upper reaches of the atmosphere does radiate out to space never to be heating the planet again.
And you really are not portraying Huffington as objective? 

Well done Buzzbee, 10 out of 10 and you didn't take 2 pages to say it !!!

[FRAMEshift]

Hurricanes are natures way of redistributing heat and some of the heat energy convected to the upper reaches of the atmosphere does radiate out to space never to be heating the planet again.

Yes, you are right about this, but I'm not sure why this makes you feel safer.  The atmosphere is in dynamic equilibrium.  Higher CO2 traps more solar radiation and raises the mean temperature of the Earth.  The temperature will keep rising until there are enough mechanisms triggered to balance the heat flow.  The Earth will continue to warm and  hurricanes will continue to become more severe until their radiation to space (and other mechanisms) get rid of the increased heat.  But you might not like the equilibrium point.

This is not a political issue to me.  I would be much happier if you were correct.  But I don't think you are.  It takes a long time (on a human time scale) for the CO2 that's emitted to be taken up by the oceans and converted to carbonates.  So it's a cumulative thing.  It's not just the carbon emitted today that traps heat...  but also the carbon that was emitted last year and 10 years ago.  Even if we stopped emitting all CO2 today, the Earth would continue to get hotter and hotter for many years.  So if you have any doubts at all about your conclusions, you should be VERY worried about the possible consequences.

And if you do view this through a political lens,  it still makes sense to stop burning fossil fuels.  Hydrocarbons from oil and coal are much more valuable as chemical feedstocks than as fuel.  Burning long chain molecules for fuel is foolish because it will take far more energy in the future to create those needed molecules.  When sun, wind, and wave energy is widely and cheaply available... and when moving away from dependence on foreign oil is a national security issue and an environmental issue... it makes perfect sense to stop emitting CO2 even if you don't believe in MMGW.

[beemaster]

I won't argue climate change. It is 4 days without power and just today got heat. All food is spoiled and gas station lines miles long here.

10 miles away is devastated thousand of homes on the shore and millions like us without power for likely a week longer from today.

Best wishes all.