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Author Topic: Hurricanes  (Read 9473 times)
kathyp
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2012, 01:10:59 AM »

thought we were just coming out of one.  next year should be kind of a neutral year and then probably an el nino will start up again.  that will mean colder and dryer winters for me and probably hotter summers.  last couple of winters have been milder, but very wet with very mild summers.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2012, 10:01:33 AM »

We could use another Ivan.  Big enough to get us all wet. 

You've apparently never been though a hurricane.  I'd rather my garden and lawn die than a bunch of people in a coastal state. 
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FRAMEshift
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2012, 10:11:55 AM »

You've apparently never been though a hurricane.  I'd rather my garden and lawn die than a bunch of people in a coastal state.  
Tough math to do.  Since Katrina, more people in the US have died from heat than from hurricanes.  And that doesn't count the people in other countries who will starve because our grain harvests and exports are way down.   And the farmers whose multi-generation farms are lost.  When your garden is a hobby, it's easy to discount the damage of a drought like we've just had.  But if your life or livelihood depend on normal weather, this is a tragedy.  

I have a personal experience that also shapes my view.  On July 4 I was at a music festival in Durham showing our company's observation hive and long hives.  I was talking with people all day about bees while sitting in 100 degree weather (105 heat index).  I experienced some kind of cardiac event and had to undergo some invasive testing.  Not fun.  But it's not a choice anymore.  We are going to get both killer heat AND killer hurricanes as a result of a warming climate.
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kathyp
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2012, 10:54:19 AM »

Quote
We are going to get both killer heat AND killer hurricanes as a result of a warming climate.

if you make the statement, you are responsible to back it up  Wink  prove it.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2012, 11:12:57 AM »

You've apparently never been though a hurricane.  I'd rather my garden and lawn die than a bunch of people in a coastal state. 
OK beeks, give me a break, it was a poor exaggeration to suggest we needed some rain in the Midwest so you don’t all starve from a lack of food...... 

As for knowing the power of a hurricane, I lived in Florida in 2004.  You remember?  One of the most active hurricane seasons ever recorded in the Atlantic and the only time in recorded history 4 hurricanes hit Florida.  Had a couple of hurricanes go over the house and got drenched by a couple others.   
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kingbee
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« Reply #25 on: August 14, 2012, 05:39:31 PM »

http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/2010/gallery/global-water-volume.html

Here is an official USGS web sight showing how much water is on planet Earth. 
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FRAMEshift
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« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2012, 02:13:26 AM »

Very cool picture.  Yes, strangely enough, the Earth is a rather dry planet.  Europa is much wetter compared to its size.  We think of Earth as wet because so much of the water is at the surface and in the atmosphere.
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« Reply #27 on: August 16, 2012, 05:00:25 PM »

I agree; very cool perspective Kingbee. 

Now how big is the blob of oil that is left to fuel global warming?
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kingbee
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« Reply #28 on: August 24, 2012, 07:14:43 PM »

...
Now how big is the blob of oil that is left to fuel global warming?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:OPEC_declared_reserves_1980-now_BP.svg

I wish to draw your attention to the graphs on these links.  Since 2005 the oil reserves of just one Western Hemisphere nation, Venezuela has more than doubled.  Since 1980 the PROVEN oil reserves in Venezuela has INCREASED by 1500%.  This is over and above the oil that Venezuela has already been produced during the last 30 years!  Venezuela now has leap forged Saud Arabia in proven oil reserves.  Dramatic increases have occurred in all oil producing countries, except in ours.

Unlike water, oil is a finite resource, I freely admit that.  I will even conditionally admit that I don’t know how much RECOVERABLE oil is in the Earth’s crust.  The condition is that you BlueBee must also admit that neither you, nor T. Boon Pickens, nor Al Gore nor anyone else knows how much recoverable crude oil is in the Earth’s crust.  Fair enough?

I also think that in less than 10 seconds and with a stroke of his pen, the President can do the same thing to the United States oil reserves that in the last 30 years happened to Venezuela‘s reserves.  That is double our oil reserves and finally increase our PROVEN oil reserves by 1,500%  like Venezuela did, or even much much more.  The oil is there, it exists, we know it exists, we even know where it is, and we know how to get to it.  The oil is simply tied up in great Gordian knots of government red or green tape.  As a result of policy and politics this oil is removed from being counted as proven reserves.  Out of the voters sight, out of the voters mind is Obama’s motto.  In truth, we are out of our mind to trust any politician but especially the current administration.  That is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. 

It is also true that the De-Growth or anti growth Luddites in power now are determined to keep every last drop of oil, every last lump of coal, and every last cubic yard of natural gas out of our sight and out of our minds by keeping it hidden deep under ground, even if it means returning you to the slow starvation your greedy money grubbing ancestors selfishly fled the old world to escape. 

The Luddite liberals are determined to turn America into a more compliant version of Charles Dickens’ work farm described in his second novel, Oliver Twist.   You must remember that Oliver Twist was not exploited by the free enterprise system but rather by Victorian England’s welfare system that Dickens described in disgusting detail. 

Can any of you people in a small quivering voice say, “Please Sir, may I have some more gruel…??”  No you say??  Well you better learn now, because on Obama’s green jobs welfare farm your very life may well depend on your ability to say it in the most pitiful manner!!!         
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« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2012, 10:19:17 PM »

Kingbee, do you believe everything the Arab oil baron’s tell you?  And since when do our beeks trust what Hugo Chavez says?  Those graphs remind me of the tech analysts stock charts in the late 90s and the housing market during the Bush years.  Lots of fancy graphs that turned out to be completely bogus.  If the Saudis reserves are growing so fast, why are they pumping salt water into their fields?   

The way to know if reserves are growing or shrinking is to look at price.  If there was really a glut of oil, it wouldn’t be selling for anything close to $96 a barrel.  How do we know that?  Check your oil history and then look at the current price of Natural Gas.  If something is really abundant, the prices drop like a rock.   

The IRS says a barrel of oil has 5.8MBTUs of energy in it.  It is currently selling for about $96 a barrel depending upon the source.  1 MBTUs of natural gas is currently selling for under $3.  If oil was as abundant as NG, it should be selling for less than $17 a barrel.  Does any beek REALLY expect $17 a barrel oil?

So what’s the expectations for Isaac? Y’all know it is very unlikely for a hurricane to get a direct strike on Tampa?  If the builders down there followed those dreaded government building regulations, they should be fine.  No doubt, hurricanes can be deadly in some areas, but Tampa’s biggest problem will be the traffic.
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kingbee
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« Reply #30 on: August 24, 2012, 11:12:49 PM »

... These are the choices we face as the climate gets more extreme...
Climate extremes are mostly driven by large temperature differences between the poles and the tropics.  The warmer the weather (or the more the globe is warmed by MMGW, the fewer extreme weather events you can expect.
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Intheswamp
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« Reply #31 on: August 26, 2012, 01:57:59 AM »

Hey BlueBee...Isaac's current plot looks to be about 4 miles from my house...hope you get some rain.  beat a dead horse  grin

It doesn't look like a biggie...but it ain't in the gulf yet, either.   Undecided

Today was kinda interesting.  It was kinda moist and breezy feeling like a hurricane was approaching...but Isaac is too far away yet to be giving us that feeling.  Odd.

Take care everybody,
Ed
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American blood spilled to protect the freedom and peace of people all over the world.  320,000 USA casualties in WWI, 1,076,000 USA casualties in WWII, 128,000 USA casualties in the Korean War, 211,000 casualties in the Vietnam "conflict", 57,000 USA casualties in "War on Terror".  Benghazi, Libya, 13 USA casualties. These figures don't include 70,000 MIA.  But, the leaders of one political party of the United States of America continue to make the statement..."What difference does it make?".

"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism, until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism."..."The press is our chief ideological weapon." - Nikita Khrushchev
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« Reply #32 on: August 26, 2012, 02:11:08 AM »

Hey, we don’t need the rain now; cancel that hurricane!

Looks like Isaac drops to a tropical storm by the time it hits Bama according to the map I’m looking at.  I’m sure somebody will correct me, but from my time living in Florida, it seemed like the real danger from a cat 1 and cat 2 is the storm surge at the coast; inland the damage is minimal.  A cat 4 or 5 is a totally different beast; it will due a huge amount of damage, even inland.  I didn’t worry about cat 1s or 2 living inland in Florida.  A cat 4 or 5 and I worried!
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Intheswamp
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« Reply #33 on: August 26, 2012, 09:21:38 AM »

Oops!!!  Be careful what you ask for. Wink  Too late, it's on it's way.  And figuring on giving you a better wetting it's shifted further to the west so it's grande arc should swing it closer to you.  grin

They have it plotted on traveling the Mississippi/Alabama line now but have upgraded it to hurricane when it makes landfall.

Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes can do damage, the rains and spin-off tornadoes probably kill more people than anything else.  Little damage by storm surges, maybe at one time there was, but over time people have prepared and built better to deal with the smaller surges.  If a rain system has saturated the ground prior to the hurricanes arrival LOTS of trees can be toppled and flooding is a given.  Flooded, washed out roads are deadly and those small, but powerful tornadoes that can spin off by the dozens, even hundreds (Opal and Ivan) can be deadly.

If this storm keeps moving westward, by the time it makes landfall the Mexicans will be running for cover!

Ed
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American blood spilled to protect the freedom and peace of people all over the world.  320,000 USA casualties in WWI, 1,076,000 USA casualties in WWII, 128,000 USA casualties in the Korean War, 211,000 casualties in the Vietnam "conflict", 57,000 USA casualties in "War on Terror".  Benghazi, Libya, 13 USA casualties. These figures don't include 70,000 MIA.  But, the leaders of one political party of the United States of America continue to make the statement..."What difference does it make?".

"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism, until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism."..."The press is our chief ideological weapon." - Nikita Khrushchev
kathyp
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« Reply #34 on: August 26, 2012, 10:45:28 AM »

yeah, i don't usually get called out for a 1 or 2 in the gulf states.  those folks are far better prepared than the people up the east coast!  this one has people worried because it looks like it might impact a wide area.  sometime a smaller storm that hits more people is as bad as a big one that hits fewer. 

ok...so i have the hurricane tracker on every device i own...i confess  grin 
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #35 on: August 26, 2012, 02:01:23 PM »

yeah, i don't usually get called out for a 1 or 2 in the gulf states.  those folks are far better prepared than the people up the east coast!  this one has people worried because it looks like it might impact a wide area.  sometime a smaller storm that hits more people is as bad as a big one that hits fewer. 

ok...so i have the hurricane tracker on every device i own...i confess  grin 
Folks inland are pretty well prepared and the longer term locals along the coastal areas know pretty much what to do.  The problem is the massive population growth that the panhandle area has seen over the last two decades.  Depending on the tourist load evacuation is a nightmare.  My little business sits on one of the main evacuation routes for the Destin/Ft. Walton area and also the western Panama City area....holidays, much less evacuations, choke traffic to a standstill at times...for miles and miles.  They are working on the highways trying to widen them and four-lane them, but this is a multi-year/decade project.  Off-season the problem isn't as bad, but hurricane season usually encompasses a high tourist time.

BTW, since some of this discussion was around hurricane Ivan here are a few facts about it for the Pensacola area, only...there was heavy damage elsewhere from the storm, too.    "2004 ,sept 16th very early morning,Hurricane Ivan passes approx 20 miles to the west with 130mph winds moving NNE over Eastern Alabama with Ivan having a wind field approx 85 miles out.Heavy beach damage,heavy flooding all around Pensacola. 54 dead with 29 as a direct result,damage over 14 billion in the U.S. In Santa rosa county 1,064 homes destroyed.In Escambia county over 6,000 lost.Seven oil platforms offshore destryed.108mph at the Pensacola Naval Air Station,In the 200,000-acre Blackwater Forest, just east of Pensacola in the western Florida panhandle, more than 1.5 million board feet of timber were downed across 185,000 acres."

I had a friend who rode out the final hours of Ivan sitting in the attic of his house with his daughter and a friend of her's.  He had a battery operated skilsaw with them in case the water rose any higher and he had to cut through the roof for them to escape.  He was well inland but situated on a river that experienced a very strong storm surge that was not anticipated to move so far inland via the river.

Ed
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www.beeweather.com 
American blood spilled to protect the freedom and peace of people all over the world.  320,000 USA casualties in WWI, 1,076,000 USA casualties in WWII, 128,000 USA casualties in the Korean War, 211,000 casualties in the Vietnam "conflict", 57,000 USA casualties in "War on Terror".  Benghazi, Libya, 13 USA casualties. These figures don't include 70,000 MIA.  But, the leaders of one political party of the United States of America continue to make the statement..."What difference does it make?".

"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism, until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism."..."The press is our chief ideological weapon." - Nikita Khrushchev
kathyp
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« Reply #36 on: August 26, 2012, 02:59:15 PM »

sometimes unpredictable things happen and you have to make the best of it.  i have a real problem with the people who ignore evacuation orders, or even suggestions.  i also don't understand the lack of preparation.  after all these years of doing this, i still am shocked at how many people have no plan, no supplies, and expect that someone is magically going to show up to save them when the SHTF.

well, lets hope for some rain and no damage.  rain we can use!
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2012, 12:12:28 AM »

You make some good points KathyP, but there are problems preparing for one in Florida.  Even if you do get supplies, the odds are the power goes out for days, if not weeks.  Without AC and refrigerators in the heat and humidity of Florida, food quickly spoils.  OK, maybe not PBJ, but the rest.  Without power; no water and no sewer.  Florida is simply a miserable place to be without electricity! 

Another problem is all the little creeks and swamps in Florida tend to overflow the roads and cut off traffic when a hurricane goes overhead. Traffic is bad enough down there in good times. 

I’m not saying you’re wrong about the need to prepare, but I can see why people can fail at that too.  If you’re going to board up your windows, it is a huge amount of work and expense which normally never pays off.  People hear the media cry wolf too many times and simply start to ignore the fear mongering.  Anymore the media blows up a tropical storm into major event.  We get winds stronger than that every week or two here in Michigan!
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« Reply #38 on: August 27, 2012, 12:13:10 AM »

Is it just my imagination, or does the latest map have Isaac on the same directory as Katrina?

A curious question I would have for our weather experts is why hasn’t this thing blown up into a super hurricane?  Based on the visible clouds it doesn’t appear to be getting much upper level shear.  That and the fact it is now entering the super warm Gulf waters, I would expect a stronger storm.

No I’m not wishing it to grown to a major hurricane, I’m just trying to figure out why in the era of global warming, we’re not seeing the super hurricanes that were predicted. 
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JP
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« Reply #39 on: August 27, 2012, 09:41:59 AM »

In hurricane mode now folks. Food, water, gas, generator all ready to go. Buttoning down the hatches but no time and too many hives to strap everything down. Can you say come on propolis!

Isaac was projected to hit the Florida Keys two days ago but how things can change!

We will be riding this one out folks. Looks like it will bring lots of rain, hopefully not too much wind but at this point in the game it could either strengthen or weaken by the time it hits landfall.

Please wish us luck!


...JP
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