Hurricanes

[BlueBee]

Where are all the hurricanes   It’s almost August and we haven’t even had a hurricane yet.  What gives?  Weren’t we suppose to be in an era of “super hurricanes” as the Gulf warmed up?

[AllenF]

Dang global warming........

[kathyp]

the best ones usually come toward the end of august through early October.  only remember going to a couple of big ones that came earlier.....

[asprince]

I am ready for a class 1 or 2 or even a good tropical storm. We need some serious rain!



Steve

[Joe D]

I am not looking for any hurricanes, we seem to see plenty.  If they come in in New Orleans or just west of there to Gulf Shores Al. they can come here.  According to the local news we are running 2 1/2 ins above normal in rain this year.  Asprince maybe you will get some tomorrow or saturday when the front comes through.



Joe

[BlueBee]

Looks like Mississippi and North Carolina are getting all the rain this summer.  No nectar death for Frameshift and Finski to argue over this year 



I’m a little skeptical of their map.  Looking at the radar, it seems like it’s been raining in Ohio every other day; rain we should be getting in Michigan! 

We could use another Ivan.  Big enough to get us all wet. 

[Keith13]

the reason for a slow season is the fact it is a La nina year. An active Pacific usually results in a quiet Atlantic. The La Nina is starting as we speak (er type) to fade and through that effect you can expect the Atlantic to become more active

At least that is my observation after watching storms from South LA for 36 years

Keith

[kathyp]

i'll be happy to see the backside of our wet and cold springs/summers!  this year was a little better but we probably won't even hit 90 this summer.  not that i like hot days...but no sun and no heat are hard on the garden and good for the bad bugs.

[David McLeod]

I'm skeptical as well. Here at the house we haven't gone more than three days without a good old fashioned afternoon thunderstorm for the last month. June was dry and it looked like it was going to get real bad but these afternoon pop ups have even kicked off a light flow of something dark and tasty.

[FRAMEshift]

Where are all the hurricanes   It’s almost August and we haven’t even had a hurricane yet.  What gives?  Weren’t we suppose to be in an era of “super hurricanes” as the Gulf warmed up?

Global Warming does not produce more hurricanes.   El Nino events, one of which we are now entering, decrease hurricane occurrence by shearing off the tops of the wind circulation patterns.  So we may have fewer hurricanes this year if that trend continues.

But WHEN a hurricane does occur, high water temperatures contribute to making it stronger.  So what part of this are you unsure of?  You don't think the Gulf is getting warmer?  You don't think that hurricanes are heat engines that are powered by the temperature differential between the water and the upper atmosphere?   

Obviously we can get cat 5 hurricanes without global warming.  Camille was a huge hurricane that happened prior to much of the warming we see today.  But the percentage of hurricanes that are cat 4 and 5 has been rising along with temperatures in the Gulf.  We can expect to see many more powerful storms as Global Warming continues.

[BlueBee]

No I don’t deny that Hurricanes are heat engines, nor do I deny that physics suggest they should be stronger over warmer water.  Then again there are some pretty strong cyclones on Jupiter and the outer planets that seem to defy your hypothesis.  Sometimes we just don’t know everything; a good reason to explore and keep an open mind.

The people who claim to be experts were predicting an above average season for 2012:
‘On December 7, 2011, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Maybe they don’t know about El Nino 

[FRAMEshift]

Then again there are some pretty strong cyclones on Jupiter and the outer planets that seem to defy your hypothesis.  

What do you mean here?  Those storms on Jupiter are also heat engines operating on the temperature difference between lower altitude heat and higher altitude cold.   While we tend to think of Jupiter as a cold place, that's because all we have measured is the top of the atmosphere.  But theoretically the atmosphere of Jupiter should be much hotter as you move to lower altitudes.

But even in a cold environment heat engines still work on the difference in temperature.  Maybe its the difference between cold and colder?   

[kathyp]

Global Warming does not produce more hurricanes.

but they said it would.  it was part of the scare tactics used.

cat 5 hurricanes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

i don't see an increase.  consider that some of these didn't come to shore as cat 5 and the only reason we know they got that strong is that we now have better technology to measure.  taking that into account, looks like the number of these has gone down, not up.

remember, the reason Galveston got hit with no warning in 1900 is that they had to way to track what was out there.

and then....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780

[Intheswamp]

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We could use another Ivan.  Big enough to get us all wet. 

I take this as just being an blatantly ignorant statement and not intended to offend.

Ed

[FRAMEshift]

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We could use another Ivan.  Big enough to get us all wet. 

I take this as just being an blatantly ignorant statement and not intended to offend.

Ed

North Carolina is the state with the highest percentage of droughts ended by hurricane, so I pay a lot of attention to the issue.  It's terrible for people on the beach and those hit by spun-off tornadoes inland.  It's wonderful for people who's lives are being destroyed by extreme heat and dryness.  These are the choices we face as the climate gets more extreme.  Not fun is it?

[kathyp]

These are the choices we face as the climate gets more extreme.  Not fun is it?

is it getting more extreme? 

[kingbee]

... These are the choices we face as the climate gets more extreme.  Not fun is it?

And your saying that fewer hurricanes is the result of a more extreme climate and not a more benign climate, wow.  In that case bring on the extreme climate, we could use the rest.

[FRAMEshift]

... These are the choices we face as the climate gets more extreme.  Not fun is it?

And your saying that fewer hurricanes is the result of a more extreme climate and not a more benign climate, wow.  In that case bring on the extreme climate, we could use the rest.

I'm saying that there are more extremes in both directions.  El Nino and La Nina cycles get faster and deeper.  El Nino brings flooding to Texas.  La Nina causes vertical wind shear that takes the tops off of hurricanes and breaks up the heat engine... and that means less strong and fewer hurricanes.  You may think that's good but if you depend on hurricanes to break drought cycles, as North Carolina does, it may not be so good.  We have lived at least since the mid 1700s in a very quiet period of weather.  Now we are breaking out on the hot side and we will see extremes we are not familiar with.  Our support systems.... asphalt highways that buckle in the heat, agriculture that depends on moderate temps and even rainfall, will break down (are breaking down).  That means the the first to die will be people in third world countries who import their food from us.  But we won't be that far behind.

[BlueBee]

We seem to be getting back into a more normal weather pattern up here in the Great Lakes.   Below normal temps and tons of rain    I sure like this WAY better than what we’ve had all summer long.  We got about 6” of rain the last couple of days and it never got about 65F   I think I even heard a big sigh of relief from the bees.  Golden rod is growing like crazy and some is getting close to blooming.  We’re still going to have a descent corn and bean crop around here.

So is Nino and Nina taking a break?  Is the vertical shear subsiding in the Atlantic?  Are the hurricanes going to start firing up?

[FRAMEshift]

So is Nino and Nina taking a break?  Is the vertical shear subsiding in the Atlantic?  Are the hurricanes going to start firing up?

Last time I checked, we  were heading into a La Nina.  Should be getting stronger as the hurricane season progresses, which probably means less strong hurricanes.