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Author Topic: Vive le France  (Read 6684 times)
BlueBee
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« on: May 07, 2012, 01:10:56 AM »

What do you all think of the French election?   Are they now headed in a better direction? 
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kathyp
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2012, 01:51:53 AM »

well, we can only go by the results from the last socialist president they had.  he gave them the entitlement society they have now, and the mess they are in both socially and financially can be traced right back to him.  so, no, i don't think things will be better except to the extent that the takers will still have their stuff. the producers will either leave or have what they have earned taken at an even higher rate.

my guess is that you'll see a lot of the European countries go pretty hard left because the people won't accept the austerity programs needed to save their economies. 

BTW....if you study the economic policy of Mitterrand, you'd be hard pressed to find much difference between what he did and what Obama is doing or wants to do.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2012, 12:20:23 PM »

What do you all think of the French election?   Are they now headed in a better direction?  
I think they are headed toward civil war with or over Mohammedan immigration.   Then there is that wee little thing called the Euro.  It is going to fall flatter than the paper it is printed on.  When all that transpires there is the danger of revolution from the right and counter revolution from the left.  Then when the French discover they are going to have to work hard once again I fear for the liberty and safety of all the small or weaker peoples and nations surrounding France.  You can always depend on a Frenchman finding himself a Napoleon when he thinks he needs one.  Scrach a Frenchman and you'll discover a German living under his outer skin.

Is that your definition of "...[H]eaded in a better direction?"
« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 02:14:45 PM by kingbee » Logged
kingbee
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2012, 02:54:51 PM »

What do you all think of the French election?   Are they now headed in a better direction?  
I think they are headed toward civil war with or over Mohammedan immigration.   Then there is that wee little thing called the Euro.  It is going to fall flatter than the paper it is printed on.  When all that transpires there is the danger of revolution from the right and counter revolution from the left.  Then when the French discover they are going to have to work hard once again I fear for the liberty and safety of all the small or weaker peoples and nations surrounding France.  You can always depend on a Frenchman finding himself a Napoleon when he thinks he needs one.  Scrach a Frenchman and you'll discover a German under his skin.

Is that your definition of "...[H]eaded in a better direction?"
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BlueBee
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2012, 11:00:33 PM »

I guess I see the glass as half full when my fellow beeks sees the glass as broken into a million pieces. 

The euro is worth 1.30 dollars.  If the euro isn’t worth the paper it is written on, then what about the dollar?  The financial guys and gals that control the world didn’t seem too alarmed today.  Our markets were basically flat, France and Germany were up and the Euro only dropped a fraction of a percent.  Does that really sound like doomsday?

Hasn’t it been proven time and time again in history that austerity programs don’t work.  What happened in Germany after WW1?  What happened in the Great Depression here?  What about the lost decade (or 2) in Japan? 

Give me one example where a country successfully grew their economy out of debt with an austerity program?  Yeah, it sounds good in theory, but it just doesn’t work in practice.  What usually happens in practice is just the opposite of what you want.

The lefts’ solution to debt is to inflate the currency to eat the debt away over time.  Unfortunately for the EU, I don’t believe their central bank can just print money like the Fed does.  That is indeed a big flaw.  Obama may have tried to inflate the dollar, but even after spending trillions and trillions of dollars, we still have only 2% to 3% inflation here.  This myth of “hyperinflation” is pure fiction, as we’ve already discussed before. 
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kathyp
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2012, 01:11:56 AM »

you have taken a bunch of pieces, some totally inaccurate, and made a patchwork quilt. 

Germany didn't have an austerity program after ww1.  in fact, the government spent tons of money on rebuilding it's military and weapons systems.  it's true that the people suffered between 1918 and about 1928, but that was because the government massively devalued it's  currency to flip the bird at the countries that wanted them to pay reparations.  France, in particular.  germany had plenty of money because we gave it to them. of course, they defaulted on the bonds and never paid them back.

any forced austerity in other countries had more to do with infrastructure destruction than with any program.  then we flooded millions of dollars into Europe and "fixed" them.

Quote
Give me one example where a country successfully grew their economy out of debt with an austerity program?  Yeah, it sounds good in theory, but it just doesn’t work in practice.  What usually happens in practice is just the opposite of what you want.

depend on what you are talking about.  government spending never ends debt or depression.  government austerity does.  there is no way to grow and economy though government spending because to spend, the government must take money out of the economy first.

give me one example where government spending ever grew an economy out of debt.
  if individuals stop spending thats bad for the economy because you can't grow business if people don't spend.  so...to tell people not to spend is harmful.  to tell people not to suck up government dollars and to tell governments to stop spending is good.

we don't have hyper inflation because the fed is manipulating the currency, but a greater flaw in your assertions is that we now have a global economy.  the EU is a big piece of that.  almost all of the countries in the EU have massive debt.  Germany can't continue to bail them out and neither can we through the IMF. 
because they are one currency, if countries begin to default, the burden of the debt is shifted to a smaller and smaller pool.  eventually, the whole thing comes down. 

the european people are not willing to make the adjustments needed.  remember the riots in france when they changed the retirement age from 60 to 62?  look at the riots in greece over relatively small adjustments in the social welfare system. they no longer care about their countries as long as the stuff keeps coming. 

BTW...your example of the euro to dollar, is an example of our currency being devalued, not of their currency being worth more.  and i'm sorry, but you are still wrong about the real inflation rate.   

it's beyond my understanding that people think the government can spend us out of trouble.  wish someone could explain that to me....
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2012, 02:17:44 AM »

you have taken a bunch of pieces, some totally inaccurate, and made a patchwork quilt.
You can admit I’m right.

Quote
Germany didn't have an austerity program after ww1.
They knew they could never repay the crushing reparations from WW1 and that lead to radicalism and Hitler.  When you give a county no way out, bad things happen.  We learned that lesson after WW1 and the allies didn’t repeat it after WW2.  Observe:  We haven’t had a WW3!


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government spending never ends debt or depression.  government austerity does.  there is no way to grow and economy though government spending because to spend, the government must take money out of the economy first.
OK, give me an example IF you can!

Quote
give me one example where government spending ever grew an economy out of debt.
Ever hear of China?  The 2nd biggest economy in the world.  They’ll be number 1 before too long.  They’re growing at 8 to 10% a year.  We’re growing at 2%, Europe at -??%.

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we don't have hyper inflation because the fed is manipulating the currency
And just what do you think the Fed was doing during the Carter years?  Inflation then; none now.  What gives in your logic?

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but a greater flaw in your assertions is that we now have a global economy.
Haven’t we traded with France, Germany, and the UK for over 200 years?


Quote
Germany can't continue to bail them out and neither can we through the IMF. 
because they are one currency, if countries begin to default, the burden of the debt is shifted to a smaller and smaller pool.  eventually, the whole thing comes down.
This is why your INFLATE your currently when you can’t possibly dig out of the hole by any other means.  You either inflate or you default.  The bankers don’t like default.

Quote
they no longer care about their countries as long as the stuff keeps coming.
Somehow I doubt that is a factual statement!

Quote
BTW...your example of the euro to dollar, is an example of our currency being devalued, not of their currency being worth more.
And why is that a bad thing?  China has done this for years.   

Quote
it's beyond my understanding that people think the government can spend us out of trouble.  wish someone could explain that to me....
Read up on the 2nd biggest economic super power on the planet.  Soon to be number 1. 
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kathyp
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2012, 12:09:31 PM »

Quote
They knew they could never repay the crushing reparations from WW1 and that lead to radicalism and Hitler.  When you give a county no way out, bad things happen.  We learned that lesson after WW1 and the allies didn’t repeat it after WW2.  Observe:  We haven’t had a WW3!


that had nothing to do with it.  it also had little to do with them embracing hitler.  the reparations vote in germany was a little like the gay rights vote here.  vocal and attention getting, but fairly small compared to the anti "red" vote, the nationalist vote, the anti-eastern jews vote....etc.

i have no idea what you are talking about with the ww3 things.

Quote
OK, give me an example IF you can!


the best example in this country is what FDR did.  http://www.today.ucla.edu/portal/ut/misguided-government-policies-80595.aspx 
this is not the only study that exposes this, but it's one that pretty easy to understand. 

on the other side, you have examples like Coolidge, Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton, who either realized or were persuaded that the more money left in the private sector, the better the economy worked.  now....not all of them retracted the size of government, but they all got more revenue and could have reduced both government and debt.  some are an example of why you don't want to help and admin increase revenue until you have reduction of government in place!!  they will only spend what they get.


Quote
Ever hear of China?  The 2nd biggest economy in the world.  They’ll be number 1 before too long.  They’re growing at 8 to 10% a year.  We’re growing at 2%, Europe at -??%.


maybe.  there are a number of economists who have looked at what china is doing and are concerned about a collapse.  they are also manipulating their currency.
more important to our discussion, they are a totalitarian government.  they can set working condition, wages, and production. 

Quote
And just what do you think the Fed was doing during the Carter years?  Inflation then; none now.  What gives in your logic?


again, you are wrong about inflation now...but that aside, one of the reasons the feds are forcing the interest rates so low now, is to avoid that Carter years scenario.  the problem is that very low interest rates are not good either and low inflation (in those things that the government counts) indicates a stagnant economy...which we now have.

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Haven’t we traded with France, Germany, and the UK for over 200 years?


of course, but 200 years ago, if France failed, it didn't make much difference to us.  we didn't have an IMF loaning our money out. we didn't have all of Europe on a single currency and under dictatorial leadership from Brussels.  we didn't have interconnected banking and business.  most international investments were by individuals and risk was limited. 

Quote
This is why your INFLATE your currently when you can’t possibly dig out of the hole by any other means.  You either inflate or you default.  The bankers don’t like default.


both are bad.  inflating your own currency kills your economy and makes your people suffer. 


Quote
Somehow I doubt that is a factual statement!


then you haven't been paying attention to what's going on in europe.

Quote
Read up on the 2nd biggest economic super power on the planet.  Soon to be number 1. 


IF you are right about china, and that's still a big if, you read up on it.  when did china start becoming an economic super power?  when they began to engage in some capitalist market efforts. you can than Hong Kong for both the example and a lot of the economic growth.  and the nature of the Chinese people.  they are used to being told how, when, and where to work and what they can and can't have, and they seem to accept it in a way that western cultures don't. 
are you suggesting that this is a model we should follow?

now my questions:  do you think we are ok going on the way we are, and if not, what economic policies would you put in place to change things?  is there a particular model that you would follow? 
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2012, 10:19:19 PM »

KathyP, I’m too pooped to politic tonight.  I caught 4 swarms in the Apple tree tonight, moved a bunch of swarm cells to mating nucs, and then had to deal with some more of my moths that hatched prematurely today.  I’ve still got bees crawling out of my clothing as I type!  I wonder what Obama did today  Smiley


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kathyp
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2012, 12:06:46 AM »

sounds like what you did was a lot more fun than politics!
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2012, 01:06:21 AM »

oops.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2012, 01:45:19 AM by kingbee » Logged
kingbee
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2012, 01:44:26 AM »

... I see the glass as half full ...my fellow beeks sees the glass ... broken into a million pieces... I hope the glass isn't broken into a million shards, but I considering the history of Europe and the nature of man, why are you so optomistic?

[/quote BlueBee:] "Hasn’t it been proven time and time again in history that austerity programs don’t work."
NO!!!  Why then are the Germans demanding an austerity program from the spend thrift nations like Greece as a precondition for a German Bailout???  
BlueBee: "What happened in Germany after WW1?"  

In August 1914 the German Empire (The First Reich) was one of the most prosperous and by far the most progressive nation on Earth.  After the Great War the Vatterland's economy was devastated.  While the Allies squabbled over the booty, Great Brittan maintained a naval blocaide around the Former German Empire.  At least 5,000 German civilians died each week both before and after the Great War from starvation.  There simply was not enough able bodied men left in Germany to produce food and consumer goods.  So the Weimar government tried to stimulate its way out of a this mess.

The Weimar Government that came out of the 1918 German revolution was a Socialist Government.  In stead of implementing an austerity program it tried to maintain the preexisting pention and social welfare programs in effect before the Great War.  With Zip, Nada, economic activity going on inflation took off like the Red Barron.  So The Weimar Government did what our government is doing, it printed more money.  By the time it was over the equivalent of a small McDonald's hamburger cost several Trillions.  The Middle Class was devastated, all stocks, bonds, pentions, bank deposits, etc. were worthless. The German middle class had made Germany one of the most prosperous, stable, and absolutely the most progressive country on Earth.  But the middle class was no more.

Under the Socialist Weimar Government all prices on average doubled by every second day.  Government and factory workers were payed twice daily, so they could run out and buy something.... any something while their money still had value.  The only Germans doing well were those who either owned foreign stocks, bonds, and bank accounts or speculated in them because every day foreign money bought ever greater amounts of German Marks.  This provided an easy target for the former German middle class to transfer their hatred and frustration on to.  You would likely call it, "Sticking it to those greedy one percenters."  The history books calls it, "The rise of the Third Reich."  You still feeling optimistic?

You could not sell your your house, sign a contract, or buy machine tools because no one knew what the money would be worth when the contract was fulfilled or the money changed hands.  If you ran out of the office at lunch to buy a kilo of potatoes no one would sell you potatoes because they didn't know what it would cost them to replace their stock of potatoes that evening.  Therefore a neck tie or pair of wool socks could be as good as food in ones belly or a gold bar because a neck tie or wool socks kept more of their value longer than your paycheck, you would just have to search for weeks on an empty belly until you found someone with more potatoes than they could eat and with fewer neck ties or wool socks than they could wear.
[/quote]
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Wonga
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The budget should be balanced, the Treasury refill


« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2012, 11:56:00 PM »

I think kathyp is basically right, I live in a democratic society - Municipality of Blue Mountains, State of New South Wales, Commonwea
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The budget should be balanced, the Treasury refill


« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2012, 12:17:12 AM »

Dont know what happened there - sorry - Commonwealth of Australia.

Socialists are in power federally here(just) , putting up taxes, making more laws, re-distributing wealth, generally the usual foolish stuff, they have taken us from a National surplus budget back into a deficit. But, they'll be voted out again next year, for probably two parliaments, and the conservatives (called the Liberal Party here, ha ha,) will get in, cut spending, reduce taxes, cut public servants (masters, really) and get us back into surplus again. The cycle goes back and forward, back and forward, its ok, its just aiming at a balance, and really it would be unhealthy for us all to have one side in too long. (We do have the advantage of not having an empire, and of being a smaller society, both pluses I think as far as government/citizen interaction/participation goes.)

I think the big thing for citizens to do is get involved at the local, municipal level, that's where the difference in our lives comes from. I mean of course you oppose infringement of your rights by federal or state, and vote for less government/less taxes, but the everyday quality of life is in your local area - like development, the library, parks, tree clearance, beekeeping regulation, poultry regulation, the local swimming pool, recyling/garbage handling, roads, and how your local taxes are collected and how they are spent. I bet in France the new President will make a lot of noise, spend a lot of money, but locally is where government has its biggest impact on communities and individuals. Certainly my local aldermen (actually my local alderwoman, a neighbour) is more contactable and more responsive to input than either the State member of Parliament, or the Federal.

So in a way, barring straight out extremism, who cares federally, is what I'm saying, local is where you are impacted, and where, by being active and involved, we can make our impact politically.

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« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2012, 04:08:00 PM »

A better name for the Paris Peace Confrance of 1919 that ended the "War to End All Wars" should have been "The Peace to End All Peace."
Actually the German Reparations stemming from German defeat in WWI, was paid in full in September 2010.  Why do you think when posting about the Euro Debt Crysis that I keep referring to the old saw, "Sooner of later your gonna run out of the Germans' money.  I wonder how much the German War debt being discharged in 2010 is affecting the Euro's likely collapse?   

After 94 years of helping to finance the PIGS' (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) borrowing spree I doubt the Germans are now looking to hook themselves up to a voluntary reparation plan just to bail out their European spend thrift cousins.
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2012, 04:17:44 PM »

some of this the EU has done to itself and germany is included.  the "constitution" that they wrote, only slightly longer than our obama care legislation, is a nightmare of legislation that can only hurt business and growth.  add to that the unions and their demands and not only do you have a large dependent population, but you have what is not dependent, demanding.

to be honest, i don't see any way out of this for them.  individual countries might be able to help themselves if they can get a grip on internals, but the EU as a whole is a mess.
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.....The greatest changes occur in their country without their cooperation. They are not even aware of precisely what has taken place. They suspect it; they have heard of the event by chance. More than that, they are unconcerned with the fortunes of their village, the safety of their streets, the fate of their church and its vestry. They think that such things have nothing to do with them, that they belong to a powerful stranger called “the government.” They enjoy these goods as tenants, without a sense of ownership, and never give a thought to how they might be improved.....

 Alexis de Tocqueville
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« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2012, 11:59:50 PM »

... Germany didn't have an austerity program after ww1. 

True

... it's true that the people suffered between 1918 and about 1928, but that was because the government massively devalued it's  currency to flip the bird at the countries that wanted them to pay reparations...
 
I have problems with this statement because the German war debt was figured in Gold Reich Marks.  The worst of the German WWI economic upheaval was over by 1925, however in 1929 the German economy got much worse with the Wall Street Crash.

... germany had plenty of money because we gave it to them. of course, they defaulted on the bonds and never paid them back...


Untrue, while Hitler did repudiate the 1919 Paris Peace Treaty to End All Peace, the final  Germany war reparation debt as negotiated by the Allies was (as far as I am aware) paid in full by Germany.  Where do you think England got the money to pay back J P Morgan or France got the money to repay Great Britain? 
It was T. Woodrow Wilson and his handlers who drug us kicking and screaming into WWI.  The Brits and French took it out of Germany’s hide.  J P Morgan loaned it to Germany and the Germans use it to pay off the war debt owed to the Brits and French.  The Brits and French returned this money to us for repayment of their war bond debts. 

The following link comes directly from a branch of the Federal Government controlled by Hillary H. Clinton, so you know it must be true.
http://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/Dawes
"In late 1923, with the European powers stalemated over German reparations, the Reparation Commission struck a committee to review the situation. Headed by Chicago banker Charles G. Dawes, the committee presented its proposal in April 1924. Under the Dawes Plan, Germany's ANNUAL reparation payments would be reduced, increasing over time as its economy improved; the full amount to be paid, however, was left undetermined. Economic policy making in Berlin would be reorganized under FOREIGN supervision and a new currency, the Reich mark, adopted. France and Belgium would evacuate the Ruhr and foreign banks would loan the German government $200 million* to help encourage economic stabilization. American financier J. P. Morgan floated the loan on the U.S. market, which was quickly oversubscribed. Over the next four years, U.S. banks continued to lend Germany enough money to enable it to meet its reparation payments to countries such as France and the United Kingdom. These countries, in turn, used their reparation payments from Germany to service their war debts to the United States....."
Hey, its an ill wind that don’t blow some good to someone.
[* 16,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (I think) new Reichmarks.]

... quote]... Give me one example where a country successfully grew their economy out of debt with an austerity program?  Yeah, it sounds good in theory, but it just doesn’t work in practice.  What usually happens in practice is just the opposite of what you want.

Its true!!! I can’t name one.
After the Great War  rolleyes Germany kept all her domestic spending programs in effect on June 27, 1914, the day the Arch Duke of Austria was assassinated.  Germany did not institute an austerity program of any kind.  These unfunded mandates or domestic spending programs are what fueled Germany's Hyper Inflation.  This is what devastated the German Middle Class and ultimately led to WWll only 20 years after the 1919 Paris Peace Treaty to End All Peace was adopted.   World War Two never happened.  There was just a 20 year armistice in the Great  rolleyes War between 1919 and 1939.  Everything happing in the world today is a direct outgrowth of the Great  rolleyes War. (1914-1945)

... government spending never ends debt or depression.  government austerity does.  there is no way to grow and economy though government spending because to spend, the government must take money out of the economy first.

no argument from me on this one kathyp. 

http://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/Dawes
In the autumn of 1928, another committee of experts was formed, this one to devise a final settlement of the German reparations problem… The Dawes committee, proposed a plan that reduced the total amount of reparations demanded of Germany to 121 billion gold marks… payable over 58 years…

…The advent of the Great Depression doomed the Young Plan… Loans from U.S. banks had helped prop up the German economy until 1928; when these loans dried up, Germany's economy floundered. In 1931... a one-year moratorium on all debt and reparation payments was declared at the behest of President Herbert Hoover… At the Lausanne Conference in 1932, European nations agreed to cancel their reparation claims against Germany, save for a final payment.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10677121
“Germany marks the end of an era this Sunday [September 30, 2010] when, 92 years after the end of hostilities, it will make the last of its First World War reparations payments that once provoked a wave of resentment strong enough to sweep Adolf Hitler to power….”
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2012, 02:57:28 PM »

...

What do you all think of the French election?   Are they now headed in a better direction? 


I can't answer your question about which direction France is headed in BlueBee, other than to say that France is driving into the left hand ditch with both hands firmly on the steering wheel while their right foot is pressed tightly on the floor board.  This is somewhat similar to what our own President is doing.

I have always heard it said that "While in Rome do what the Romans do!"
Therefore you should ask these two Frenchmen in the following clips where they and their money are headed.  Their direction of travel is neither towards either the Right or towards the Left Bank of the river Seine in Paris but completely out of the country.  But cheer up Blue, that only means more opportunities for you to scarf up distressed housing, on the other side of the pond.  You're going to love the brie, escargot, and Pâté de Foie Gras over there, don't forget to send us a post card.     
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2012, 11:44:25 PM »

Kingbee, I’m afraid I would never survive in France.   I have to make my brain go backward to try to process the French language and it doesn’t do well going backwards.  I start getting confused......like a Republican  grin

Now tell me this, if France is in such fiscal disarray, why are the yields on the Government’s recent short term debt sales NEGATIVE!!!!   Yes, their economy is still suffering from Dubya’s policies (along with the rest of the world), but they are not hyper-inflating. 

What is the beek’s obsession with hyperinflation?  I don't get it?  It’s never happened here, but y’all fear it like the plague.  What gives?
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Keith13
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2012, 04:01:12 PM »

now we are blaming France's economy on Bush?

wow!

Keith
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