And I think tax bases will shrink because the capital inevitably flows towards larger returns/lower costs/booming markets. I fear that US, Australia, Europe, - the OECD countries - will decline due to this sort of capital flow - (I hope I am wrong., and it wil not be straightforward) After all British capital - the huge profits from their invention of industrialisation and railways, etc, - flowed out of the UK from the late 19th Century on, financing US & German industrialisation, amongst others.
sure, and some of that is just the nature of the beast. emerging markets are hungry. older markets get fat and lazy. when the brits were imperialists
they owned their own materials, labor, and markets. it didn't matter if the US didn't need to buy from them. after the two big wars, the brits were down and the US had material, labor, and the ability to reach, if not own, the markets.
when we got fat and lazy, the Japanese were coming on strong and everything was "made in Japan". then they blew it.
these are the natural cycles of things. the cycles used to take 100's of years, but tech has shortened that time. that's not to say that nothing can be done to stay competitive, but to do it, you have to have a population willing to work hard and make sacrifices. we (europe, US, etc.) have a population willing to sit around complaining about "made in China", but not willing to do what needs to be done to be competitive....and governments that make it worse than it would be if they just got out of the way.