I believe that if us humans quit keeping bees that only 0.001% of the bees outside of the range of AHB would survive to a 5 year period. AHB swarm and move too much for pests to do much harm to the hive.
that's about what I'd expect as well AllenF. its humans who proliferate the honeybee, the sick ones and the not so sick for all kinds of reasons.
I'd expect those ferrels that currently winter over in "Northern" climes would eventually die out without local beeks assisting with the genetic pool every year :)
I took part in a three year study of feral bees. One clear thing was seen. the further you got from what some claim as "destruction"...that being farmland and other urban areas, the fewer and fewer bees there were. fact is, deep forest and areas void of human intervention, just does not produce much for bees to survive. After the trees bloom in forest there just isn't much the rest of the year. And while you may get a scattering of one plant or another, you would not get near anything like weeds and meadow plants you get when fields and other areas are left behind after human use.
I think bees would survive in warmer climates just fine. Most bees are from very temperate areas. In colder regions, I think you may have some, but nothing what we have today in the wild. I've said it before, if you circle a 10 mile radius around every beeyard in Pennsylvania (or any state), there would be few areas where bees are not being influenced, impacted, and perpetuated by beekeepers and issued swarms.
BTW...not much remains from a genetic pool after AHBs move into an area. While non-AFB bees may provide a wide range of genetics, AFB dominates and pushes out all other genetic material. We may of lost a great variation of genetics from survivor bees being lost to the spread of AHBs. Those genetic variations lost could of been the answer to problems down the road.