It's a 3 lb package I installed 5 weeks ago
I'm trying to determine if I think it's strong enough to split
No sence to split. You loose your honey, and hive is really small yet.
Hive is developed very well. I suppose that space is too much, at least enough. When you hive is 6-7 box tower, you can take a split. If you split now, you will ruin hive's development.
It is better buy a new nuc than split this one, or catch swarms.
In Finland just now my hives are mostly two boxes. Some has 3 boxes and a couple only one. After a month they will be 5-6 box, and if they are not, I put them together that they are able to gather canola honey. Untill that I make my efforts to get hives full of brood. I have in every hive 15 W heating cable.
Dandelion is just in good blossom. Apple trees start to bloom. We have cold here. 10-13 C on day.
I bought 6 queens from Italy, but I have bees enough to make nucs. Hives are too small bor splitting. In last week of April it was frosty week and snow covered ground. Bees did not get drinking water and they destroyed 10 day's larvas. There is just behind now a gap in emerging bees.
However, I am going to catch 160-200 lbs honey per hive.