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Author Topic: Global Warming  (Read 12951 times)
Jerrymac
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« Reply #60 on: June 03, 2009, 07:34:26 PM »

Oh! And I hear those seals make very warm jackets.  grin
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Irwin
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howdy all


« Reply #61 on: June 03, 2009, 08:56:03 PM »

I am no expert but what did man do to start this back in the ICE AGE.
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« Reply #62 on: June 03, 2009, 09:46:42 PM »

"I'm bored, and I know this topic will bring out the entertaining debate, so let's get it on! "


Sarge,

I have been following this thread from the beginning and I am confused. Do you really believe all the B.S. that you a spouting or do you just enjoy the debate?

Steve

A little of both mostly.   evil
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SgtMaj
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« Reply #63 on: June 03, 2009, 10:00:39 PM »

I am no expert but what did man do to start this back in the ICE AGE.

Deviation from the natural cycle didn't start back in the ice age.  It didn't start until after the industrial revolution when we began unsequestering large quantities of carbon, burning them as fuel which resulted in most of that carbon ending up in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (some of it also ends up in the ocean as carbonic acid).  It's not the natural cycle that is referred to when people talk about global warming, it's the deviation from the natural cycle that they are talking about.
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #64 on: June 03, 2009, 10:14:42 PM »

Didn't read anything I posted huh?
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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« Reply #65 on: June 03, 2009, 11:07:45 PM »

Didn't read anything I posted huh?

I haven't replied to you yet because you posted 4 articles and I haven't yet had a chance to fully read them all yet. 

However, I did notice from the first link that it states that fewer than 2% of scientists have falsified research data in such a way that it would result in false conclusions.  That is far lower than I would expect, especially given their method of survey that counted any affirmative answer to the question of if the scientistst that were surveyed knew of any instance of such a case.  I really would have expected it to be much closer to around 100% since we all know there was a lot of falsified research done in studies funded by the tobacco industry a few decades back... but I expect most of the scientists surveyed probably weren't thinking about that and likely limited themselves to their direct experience in answering that question rather than answering the question exactly as it was presented.  Anyway, I haven't even finished fully reading the first article, much less all four. 
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dragonfly
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« Reply #66 on: June 03, 2009, 11:19:08 PM »

It's not the natural cycle that is referred to when people talk about global warming, it's the deviation from the natural cycle that they are talking about.


Changes do not always occur in nice smooth cyclical patterns. Historically, there were cataclysmic changes in climate and geology. It had nothing to do with anthropogenic activity. Poop happens. So does change, whether we like it or not, and whether we are delusional enough to think we can control it, or are sheepish enough to steep ourselves in religious guilt over it.  I tend to be on the extremely skeptical side, not only wrt to climate change hysteria, but on many other issues as well. This is just another load of snake oil aimed at getting gullible people to buy into it, and lose a few bucks in the process.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

excerpts:

Quote
Interestingly, the last half of the Carboniferous Period witnessed periods of significant ice cap formation over polar landmasses-- particularly in the southern hemisphere. Alternating cool and warm periods during the ensuing Carboniferous Ice Age coincided with cycles of glacier expansion and retreat. Coastlines fluctuated, caused by a combination of both local basin subsidence and worldwide sea level changes. In West Virginia a complex system of meandering river deltas supported vast coal swamps that left repeating stratigraphic levels of peat bogs that later became coal, separated by layers of fluvial rocks like sandstone and shale when the deltas were building, and marine rocks like black shales and limestones when rising seas drowned coastlands. Accumulations of several thousand feet of these sediments over millions of years produced sufficient heat and pressure to transform the soft sediments into rock and the peat layers into the 100 or so coal seams which today comprise the Great Bituminous Coalfields of the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe.


Earth's climate and atmosphere have varied greatly over geologic time. Our planet has mostly been much hotter and more humid than we know it to be today, and with far more carbon dioxide (the greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere than exists today. The notable exception is 300,000,000 years ago during the late Carboniferous Period, which resembles our own climate and atmosphere like no other.
With this in mind the road to understanding global warming and our present climate begins with an historical journey through a chapter in Earth's history, some 30 million years before dinosaurs appeared, known as the Carboniferous Period-- a time when terrestrial Earth was ruled by giant plants and insects, and glaciers waxed and waned over a huge southern continent.

There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 18 times higher than today.
The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today-- 4400 ppm
. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.


emphasis mine.

Also, from one of the skeptics

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Globalclimatechangehasnaturalcauses.pdf


Quote
In the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries the climate in Europe was cold and unpredictable. Crops failed. Famine followed famine, bringing epidemics.
There was a belief that crop failures must be due to human wickedness. But who were the wicked ones?
It was believed that there must be some witches who are in the grip of the devil. Witches were named, Inquisitors tested their faith, and a large number of poor souls were condemned and burnt at the stake. For decade after decade, fires burned in most towns in Europe.
It is an example of a public delusion. In 1841, Charles MacKay wrote a book, Extraordinary Public Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It has been reprinted. MacKay describes several popular delusions such as The South-Sea Bubble, The Tulipmania, The Crusades, and The Witch Mania. We read it today with a detached amusement, but there have been many other popular delusions since MacKay wrote his book. We are not immune to the madness of crowds.
Today, there is global warming. The droughts and warm weather are regarded as punishment for the environmental sins of mankind. The particular cause is claimed to be the use of carbon fuels.
 
- this is worth the time to read if you're not already sold on the scare.
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SgtMaj
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« Reply #67 on: June 03, 2009, 11:30:47 PM »

It's not the natural cycle that is referred to when people talk about global warming, it's the deviation from the natural cycle that they are talking about.


Changes do not always occur in nice smooth cyclical patterns. Historically, there were cataclysmic changes in climate and geology.


Yes there were, and each was marked with a mass extinction event...

But as far as I can tell, half the world's supervolcanos aren't erupting at the moment, nor has the earth been struck by any giant meteorites... and none of the other factors that were involved with those events have been occurring lately... but even if they were... the fact that those times of rapid climate change precipitated in mass extinctions should be reason enough for concern.

It had nothing to do with anthropogenic activity. Poop happens. So does change, whether we like it or not, and whether we are delusional enough to think we can control it, or are sheepish enough to steep ourselves in religious guilt over it.  I tend to be on the extremely skeptical side, not only wrt to climate change hysteria, but on many other issues as well. This is just another load of snake oil aimed at getting gullible people to buy into it, and lose a few bucks in the process.


You mean save a few bucks in the process.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

excerpts:

Quote
Interestingly, the last half of the Carboniferous Period witnessed periods of significant ice cap formation over polar landmasses-- particularly in the southern hemisphere. Alternating cool and warm periods during the ensuing Carboniferous Ice Age coincided with cycles of glacier expansion and retreat. Coastlines fluctuated, caused by a combination of both local basin subsidence and worldwide sea level changes. In West Virginia a complex system of meandering river deltas supported vast coal swamps that left repeating stratigraphic levels of peat bogs that later became coal, separated by layers of fluvial rocks like sandstone and shale when the deltas were building, and marine rocks like black shales and limestones when rising seas drowned coastlands. Accumulations of several thousand feet of these sediments over millions of years produced sufficient heat and pressure to transform the soft sediments into rock and the peat layers into the 100 or so coal seams which today comprise the Great Bituminous Coalfields of the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe.


Earth's climate and atmosphere have varied greatly over geologic time. Our planet has mostly been much hotter and more humid than we know it to be today, and with far more carbon dioxide (the greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere than exists today. The notable exception is 300,000,000 years ago during the late Carboniferous Period, which resembles our own climate and atmosphere like no other.
With this in mind the road to understanding global warming and our present climate begins with an historical journey through a chapter in Earth's history, some 30 million years before dinosaurs appeared, known as the Carboniferous Period-- a time when terrestrial Earth was ruled by giant plants and insects, and glaciers waxed and waned over a huge southern continent.

There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 18 times higher than today.
The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today-- 4400 ppm
. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.


emphasis mine.

Also, from one of the skeptics

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Globalclimatechangehasnaturalcauses.pdf


Quote
In the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries the climate in Europe was cold and unpredictable. Crops failed. Famine followed famine, bringing epidemics.
There was a belief that crop failures must be due to human wickedness. But who were the wicked ones?
It was believed that there must be some witches who are in the grip of the devil. Witches were named, Inquisitors tested their faith, and a large number of poor souls were condemned and burnt at the stake. For decade after decade, fires burned in most towns in Europe.
It is an example of a public delusion. In 1841, Charles MacKay wrote a book, Extraordinary Public Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It has been reprinted. MacKay describes several popular delusions such as The South-Sea Bubble, The Tulipmania, The Crusades, and The Witch Mania. We read it today with a detached amusement, but there have been many other popular delusions since MacKay wrote his book. We are not immune to the madness of crowds.
Today, there is global warming. The droughts and warm weather are regarded as punishment for the environmental sins of mankind. The particular cause is claimed to be the use of carbon fuels.
 
- this is worth the time to read if you're not already sold on the scare.
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2009, 12:27:37 AM »

Didn't read anything I posted huh?
I haven't replied to you yet because you posted 4 articles and I haven't yet had a chance to fully read them all yet. 

I wasn't wanting you to respond. I just thought you'd read it so you would stop digging that hole you are so determined to bury yourself in.
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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dragonfly
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« Reply #69 on: June 04, 2009, 12:30:01 AM »

If you look at the numbers (if the figures I have read are accurate), it's pretty simple to see why myself and others aren't getting all freaked out about anthropogenic contributions to the greenhouse effect. There are basically 5 gases that contribute to warming:

water vapor
CO2
methane
nitrous oxide
miscellaneous (CFC's and others)

 The last figures I read indicate that human-caused CO2 contributions are estimated at 3.5% of the 3.5% total CO2 emissions. That is significantly less than 0.2%. CFC's and the other miscellaneious gases are so miniscule, they don't even generally spur conversation. If humankind's 0.02% is causing climate change, and we can't control water vapor, which is reportedly the largest contributor by far (I've read figures ranging from 75-95%), then why are we getting in an uproar?
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SgtMaj
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« Reply #70 on: June 04, 2009, 02:14:22 AM »

Didn't read anything I posted huh?
I haven't replied to you yet because you posted 4 articles and I haven't yet had a chance to fully read them all yet. 

I wasn't wanting you to respond. I just thought you'd read it so you would stop digging that hole you are so determined to bury yourself in.

Oh, well don't bet on it.  I understand the science and the data well enough on my own to stick with my position.
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SgtMaj
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« Reply #71 on: June 04, 2009, 02:23:03 AM »

If you look at the numbers (if the figures I have read are accurate), it's pretty simple to see why myself and others aren't getting all freaked out about anthropogenic contributions to the greenhouse effect. There are basically 5 gases that contribute to warming:

water vapor
CO2
methane
nitrous oxide
miscellaneous (CFC's and others)

 The last figures I read indicate that human-caused CO2 contributions are estimated at 3.5% of the 3.5% total CO2 emissions. That is significantly less than 0.2%. CFC's and the other miscellaneious gases are so miniscule, they don't even generally spur conversation. If humankind's 0.02% is causing climate change, and we can't control water vapor, which is reportedly the largest contributor by far (I've read figures ranging from 75-95%), then why are we getting in an uproar?

Who says you have to get in an uproar?

By the way, your numbers are way off... on the high side... with numbers like those we'd be looking at a 12 degree C shift in temperature over the next fifty to 100 years.  I don't think even the worst case scenarios go that high.
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SgtMaj
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« Reply #72 on: June 04, 2009, 03:23:39 AM »

Oh! And I hear those seals make very warm jackets.  grin

I think there may be a little confusion here... environmentalism and animal rights activism are two different things entirely.
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reinbeau
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« Reply #73 on: June 04, 2009, 07:52:48 AM »

Didn't read anything I posted huh?
I haven't replied to you yet because you posted 4 articles and I haven't yet had a chance to fully read them all yet. 

I wasn't wanting you to respond. I just thought you'd read it so you would stop digging that hole you are so determined to bury yourself in.
Please, don't stop him.  When the hole collapses we won't be bothered with him anymore!
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Scadsobees
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Best use of smileys in a post award.


« Reply #74 on: June 04, 2009, 08:04:41 AM »

Last I heard the great lakes were lower than they ever have been.



Nope, we're up 12 inches in only a few months.  If this keeps YOU are going to have lakefront property.

Funny you brought up sea level change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png

Do you know how much those horses were peeing back then?
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Rick
Jerrymac
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« Reply #75 on: June 04, 2009, 09:06:55 AM »

Here is an article about the lakes. It mentions the thing I was talking about.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090502/METRO/905020351/1409/METRO/Study--Ice-jam-caused-Great-Lake-water-levels-to-drop

• Shifts in the Earth's crust, called glacial isostatic adjustment, that are the result of the planet's rebound from the melting of glaciers 10,000 years ago.
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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Jerrymac
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« Reply #76 on: June 04, 2009, 09:09:48 AM »

Oh by the way. About those melting glaciers.... when did cavemen discover fire?  shocked
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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Jerrymac
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« Reply #77 on: June 04, 2009, 12:37:50 PM »

Here is a nice long book review (some pages are left out. You would have to buy the book.) Has a lot of neat stuff in it.

Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Patrick J. Michaels
http://books.google.com/books?id=X3XD9VwhETkC&printsec=frontcover#PPP1,M1
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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SgtMaj
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« Reply #78 on: June 04, 2009, 01:26:23 PM »

You've all got me curious to know what you all think lake levels have to do with, well, anything?
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Jerrymac
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« Reply #79 on: June 04, 2009, 01:32:32 PM »

For a while the lake levels were dropping and everyone was blaming it on Global warming. Now they know that wasn't the reason. It was another example of the cyclical nature of Earth. Just like this climate change stuff.
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rainbow sunflower  Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.   rainbow sunflower

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